But if you toss on the SAT then what will you use to made admissions decisions? Clearly high school GPAs are so inflated as to be nonsensical.
Regardless of effect sizes, at leat for our freshmen, the SAT-V is the best predictor we have at the moment. Annette Annette Kujawski Taylor, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology University of San Diego 5998 Alcala Park San Diego, CA 92110 619-260-4006 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---- Original message ---- >Date: Wed, 28 May 2008 00:36:33 EDT >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: [tips] SAT for selection >To: "Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)" <[email protected]> > > I use the relationship of SAT to College vs HS GPA > in my stats class as an example of the importance in > considering effect sizes. Both the College Board > and Fair Test use the same correlations and > regressions. They each characterize the magnitudes > (effect sizes) differently. The College Board uses > language that makes the effect sizes look larger > than they are. Fair Test actually reports effect > sizes and characterizes them as small. Imagine if > you used prediction models like this to make > financial decisions. You may as well invest your > money at the Blackjack Table. > > From the College Board: > The SAT has proven to be an important predictor of > success in college. Its validity as a predictor of > success has been demonstrated through hundreds of > validity studies. These validity studies > consistently find that high school grades and SAT > scores together are substantial and significant > predictors of achievement in college. In these > studies, although high school grades typically are > slightly better predictors of achievement, SAT > scores add significantly to the prediction. These > findings tend to hold for all subgroups of students > and for all types of measures - freshman grades, > course grades, cumulative grades, and measures of > persistence. > > From Fair Test: > Validity research at individual institutions > illustrates the weak predictive ability of the SAT. > One study looked at the power of high school class > rank, SAT I, and SAT II in predicting cumulative > college GPAs. Researchers found that the SAT I was > by far the weakest predictor, explaining only 4% of > the variation in college grades, while SAT II > scores accounted for 6.8% of the differences in > academic performance. By far the most useful tool > proved to be class rank, which predicted 9.3% of > the changes in cumulative GPAs. Combining SAT I > scores and class rank inched this figure up to > 11.3%, leaving almost 90% of the variation in grades > unexplained. > > It's all about effect size. The bottom line is that > for a variety of reasons, we cannot predict success > in college with any reasonable accuracy. My > proposal is that we use a very rough cut-off based > on High School grades or rank to make an initial > selection and then run a fair lottery to determine > who gets accepted. We may as well operate on the > truth rather than lies. Have you ever counseled a > student who was rejected from college or graduate > school. They believe they did not work hard enough > or did not have some necessary credential. The > truth is that they likely fell into the 90% random, > unaccounted for error in prediction. The situation > is even worse for applications to graduate and > professional schools. It is all a lottery posing as > some sort of scientific selection process. > > Mike Williams > http://mindcampus.learnpsychology.com > > ************** > Get trade secrets for amazing burgers. Watch > "Cooking with Tyler Florence" on AOL Food. > (http://food.aol.com/tyler-florence?video=4&?NCID=aolfod00030000000002) > > --- > To make changes to your subscription contact: > > Bill Southerly ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
