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**************************************** ABSTRACT: G.S. Chandy of the Math-Teach list has called attention to David Brooks' Op-Ed piece titled "The Biggest Issue." Brooks wrote: "I point to these two research projects. . . ["The Race Between Education and Technology" [Goldin & Katz (2008)] and "Schools, Skills, and Synapses" [Heckman (2008)]. . . . . because the SKILLS SLOWDOWN IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE facing the country. . . . . this slow-moving problem, more than any other, will shape the destiny of the nation. . . . . . America rose because it got more out of its own people than other nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues grab headlines and campaign attention. But this tectonic plate is still relentlessly and menacingly shifting beneath our feet." I argue that a bigger issue and a more menacing tectonic plate, seldom mentioned by editorialists such a Brooks; economists such as Goldin, Katz, and Heckman; and select committees - see e.g., "Rising Above the Gathering Storm" [NAP (2007)], is the "Threat to Life on Planet Earth." **************************************** G.S. Chandy (2008), in his Math-Teach post "Re: Haim's Challenge (Cont'd)" wrote (slightly edited) : "Here is some evidence from columnist David Brooks (2008), to the effect that there ARE important, open. pedagogical questions. (In General). [Check out 'The Biggest Issue', by David Brooks - <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/opinion/29brooks.html?ref=opinion>]." Brooks wrote [bracketed by lines "BBBBBB. . . ."; my insert at ". . . .[insert]. . . . "; my CAPS]: BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB Why did the United States become the leading economic power of the 20th century? The best short answer is that a ferocious belief that people have the power to transform their own lives gave Americans an unparalleled commitment to education, hard work and economic freedom. Between 1870 and 1950, the average American's level of education rose by 0.8 years per decade. In 1890, the average adult had completed about 8 years of schooling. By 1900, the average American had 8.8 years. By 1910, it was 9.6 years, and by 1960, it was nearly 14 years. As Claudia Goldin. . . .[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/goldin>] . . . . and Lawrence Katz. . . . .[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/katz>]. . . . describe in their book, "The Race Between Education and Technology," . . . . . [Goldin & Katz (2008)]. . . .America's educational progress was amazingly steady over those decades, and the U.S. opened up a gigantic global lead. Educational levels were rising across the industrialized world, but the U.S. had at least a 35-year advantage on most of Europe. In 1950, no European country enrolled 30 percent of its older teens in full-time secondary school. In the U.S., 70 percent of older teens were in school. America's edge boosted productivity and growth. But the happy era ended around 1970 when America's educational progress slowed to a crawl. Between 1975 and 1990, educational attainments stagnated completely. Since then, progress has been modest. America's lead over its economic rivals has been entirely forfeited, with many nations surging ahead in school attainment. This threatens the country's long-term prospects. It also widens the gap between rich and poor. Goldin and Katz describe a race between technology and education. The pace of technological change has been surprisingly steady. In periods when educational progress outpaces this change, inequality narrows. The market is flooded with skilled workers, so their wages rise modestly. In periods, like the current one, when educational progress lags behind technological change, inequality widens. The relatively few skilled workers command higher prices, while the many unskilled ones have little bargaining power. The meticulous research of Goldin and Katz is complemented by a report from James Heckman of the University of Chicago. Using his own research, Heckman also concludes that high school graduation rates peaked in the U.S. in the late 1960s, at about 80 percent. Since then they have declined. . . . . . . [More specifically, on p. 7 Heckman (2008) states: "According to what many regard as the official high school graduation rate, U.S. schools now graduate nearly 88 percent of students and black graduation rates have converged to those of non-Hispanic whites over the past four decades. The evidence in Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a) challenges these claims and establishes that the high school dropout rate has increased among native-born American children. Using a wide variety of data sources, they estimate U.S. graduation rates. They establish that (1) THE U.S. HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE PEAKED AT AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE LATE 1960s AND THEN DECLINED BY 4-5 PERCENTAGE POINTS. (2) About 65 percent of blacks and Hispanics leave school with a high school diploma. Minority graduation rates are substantially below the rates for non-Hispanic whites. Contrary to claims based on the official statistics, they find no evidence of convergence in minority-majority graduation rates for males over the past 35 years. (3) Exclusion of incarcerated populations from the official statistics substantially biases upward the reported high school graduation rate for black males.]. . . . . . In "Schools, Skills and Synapses," Heckman . . . . [2008]. . . . probes the sources of that decline. It's not falling school quality, he argues. Nor is it primarily a shortage of funding or rising college tuition costs. Instead, Heckman directs attention at family environments, which have deteriorated over the past 40 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I point to these two research projects because THE SKILLS SLOWDOWN IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY. Rising gas prices are bound to dominate the election because voters are slapped in the face with them every time they visit the pump. But this slow-moving problem, more than any other, will shape the destiny of the nation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . America rose because it got more out of its own people than other nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues grab headlines and campaign attention. BUT THIS TECTONIC PLATE IS STILL RELENTLESSLY AND MENACINGLY SHIFTING BENEATH OUR FEET. BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB But, in my view, a BIGGER ISSUE and a more menacing tectonic plate is the "Threat to Life on Planet Earth," seldom mentioned by educational leaders; politicians; business executives; select committees [NAP (2007); editorialists such as David Brooks; and economists such as Goldin, Katz, and Heckman - see e.g., "Drivers Of Education Reform and Gender Equity: Economic Competitiveness and Preservation of Life on Planet Earth" in Part 2 of Hake & Mallow (2008). Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University 24245 Hatteras Street, Woodland Hills, CA 91367 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/> <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/> "The Race between Education and Technology" Title of a book by Goldin & Katz (2008) "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe." H.G. Wells (1920) REFERENCES Brooks, D. 2008. "The Biggest Issue," New York Times, 29 July; online at <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/opinion/29brooks.html?ref=opinion>. Because this piece may soon be available only to subscribers, I have followed the helpful practice of mathematician Jerry Becker and copied (i.e., "beckered") an annotated and referenced version into the OPEN AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/5ofthx>. Such copying in accord with "fair use" of copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. For more information go to <http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml>. Chandy, G.S. 2008. "Re: Haim's Challenge (Cont'd)," Math-Teach post of 02 Aug 2008 03:50:08 EDT; online at <http://mathforum.org/kb/message.jspa?messageID=6320123&tstart=0>. Goldin, C. & L.F. Katz. 2008. "The Race between Education and Technology." Harvard Univ. Press. Publisher's information at <http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/GOLRAC.html>: "The book argues that technological change, education, and inequality have been involved in a kind of race. During the first eight decades of the twentieth century, the increase of educated workers was higher than the demand for them. This had the effect of boosting income for most people and lowering inequality. However, the reverse has been true since about 1980. This educational slow-down was accompanied by rising inequality. The authors discuss the complex reasons for this, and what might be done to ameliorate it." Amazon.com information is at <http://tinyurl.com/5773s8>. Hake, R.R. & J.V. Mallow. 2008. Gender Issues in Science/Math Education (GISME): Over 700 Annotated References & 1000 URL's: *Part 1 - All References in Alphabetical Order <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part1.pdf> (8.5 MB); *Part 2 - Some References in Subject Order <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part2.pdf> (4.8 MB). Because periodic updates of GISME necessitate changing the URL's, an address that will always work is "Reference 55 at <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>." Part 2 subjects are: (a) Affirmative Action; (b) Constructivism: Educational and Social; (c) DRIVERS OF EDUCATION REFORM AND GENDER EQUITY: ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS AND PRESERVATION OF LIFE ON PLANET EARTH; (d) Education and the Brain; (e) Gender & Spatial Visualization; (f) Harvard President Summers' Speculation on Innate Gender Differences in Science and Math Ability; (g) Hollywood Actress Danica McKellar's book "Math Doesn't Suck"; (h) Interactive Engagement; (i) International Comparisons; (j) Introductory Physics "Curriculum S" (for Synthesis); (k) Is There a Female Science? - Pro & Con; (l) Schools Shortchange Girls (or is it Boys)?; (m) Sex Differences in Mathematical Ability: Fact or Artifact?; (n) Status of Women Faculty at MIT. Heckman, J.J. 2008. "Schools, Skills, and Synapses," Working Paper 14064, National Bureau Of Economic Research; online at <http://www.nber.org/papers/w14064.pd> (1.9 MB). The abstract reads "This paper discusses (a) the role of cognitive and noncognitive ability in shaping adult outcomes, (b) the early emergence of differentials in abilities between children of advantaged families and children of disadvantaged families, (c) the role of families in creating these abilities, (d) adverse trends in American families, and (e) the effectiveness of early interventions in offsetting these trends. Practical issues in the design and implementation of early childhood programs are discussed." On page 5, Heckman writes: "The Bell Curve. . . [Herrnstein & Murray (1996)]. . . . assigned a primary role to genetics in explaining the origins of differences in human cognitive ability and a primary role to cognitive ability in shaping adult outcomes. If cognitive ability is genetically determined and is primary in shaping adult outcomes, public policy towards disadvantaged populations is limited to compensation. Recent research, summarized in this paper, establishes the power of socioemotional abilities and an important role for environment and intervention in creating abilities. The field of epigenetics surveyed in Rutter (2006) demonstrates how genetic expression is strongly influenced by environmental influences and that environmental effects on gene expression can be inherited. EVIDENCE IS PRESENTED IN THIS PAPER THAT HIGH QUALITY EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS FOSTER ABILITIES AND THAT INEQUALITY CAN BE ATTACKED AT ITS SOURCE. Early interventions also boost the productivity of the economy. Herrnstein, R. J. and C. A. Murray. 1996. "The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life." Free Press. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/5tksfp>. Note the "Search Inside" feature. NAP. 2007. Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Future," National Academies Press; online at <http://books.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html> : "In a world where advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor is readily available, U.S. ADVANTAGES IN THE MARKETPLACE AND IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE. A COMPREHENSIVE AND COORDINATED FEDERAL EFFORT IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO BOLSTER U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND PRE-EMINENCE IN THESE AREAS. This congressionally requested report by a pre-eminent committee makes four recommendations along with 20 implementation actions that federal policy-makers should take to create high-quality jobs and focus new science and technology efforts on meeting the nation's needs, especially in the area of clean, affordable energy: 1) Increase America's talent pool by vastly improving K-12 mathematics and science education; 2) Sustain and strengthen the nation's commitment to long-term basic research; 3) Develop, recruit, and retain top students, scientists, and engineers from both the U.S. and abroad; and 4) Ensure that the United States is the premier place in the world for innovation. Some actions will involve changing existing laws, while others will require financial support that would come from reallocating existing budgets or increasing them. "Rising Above the Gathering Storm" will be of great interest to federal and state government agencies, educators and schools, public decision makers, research sponsors, regulatory analysts, and scholars. Rutter, M. 2006. "Genes and Behavior: Nature-Nurture Interplay Explained." Blackwell Publishers. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/5su54z>. Note the "Search Inside" feature. Wells, H.G. 1920. "The Outline of History." For Amazon.com information on a two volume set published in 1974 by Scholarly Press see <http://tinyurl.com/yjs83d>. For an interesting history of this treatise see <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Outline_of_History>. --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
