On 5 December 2008 Chris Green posted:
>Wow. Who knew that (Googling) Toronto was so politically divisive?
>Check out the largest positive and negative correlations.
>http://statestats.appspot.com/?q=toronto

Quote on the webpage in question: "Be careful drawing conclusions from this
data."  :-)

Stephen Black please note. :-)

Allen Esterson
Former lecturer, Science Department
Southwark College, London
http://www.esterson.org

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[tips] Social network effects: for real?
sblack
Fri, 05 Dec 2008 08:14:25 -0800
Much excitement in the news about a study just published in BMJ (British 
Medical Journal):

Dynamic spread of happiness in a large social network: longitudinal 
analysis over 20 years in the Framingham Heart Study

James H Fowler and Nicholas A Christakis. BMJ 2008 337: a2338
Full text at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/337/dec04_2/a2338

Conclusion:  "People“s happiness depends on the
happiness of others with whom they are connected."

which, of course, is a causal conclusion.

But lesser attention appears to have been paid to another study published 
simultaneously in the same issue:

Detecting implausible social network effects in acne, height, and 
headaches: longitudinal analysis

Ethan Cohen-Cole and Jason M Fletcher. BMJ 2008;337:a2533
Full text at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/337/dec04_2/a2533

They found that a friend“s acne problems increased one's own acne 
problems,  a friend's headaches increased one's own headaches, and a 
friend's height increased one's own height.  Given the first two, it 
seems one is better off without friends.

Their conclusion: "Researchers should be cautious in attributing 
correlations in health outcomes of close friends to social network 
effects, especially when environmental confounders are not adequately 
controlled for in the analysis"

Now see the first study again.

Stephen

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