I wonder if watching this video that shows the sheer volume of air traffic over North America at any given moment has any impact on base rate estimates: http://www.aaronkoblin.com/work/flightpatterns/FPWeb_Final_3.mov
The middle segment provides an interesting way to visually depict data. Sue -----Original Message----- From: Ken Steele [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 4:23 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Rick Steves: Travel guru reports on a little psychology I agree with Rick that there are two aspects to this calculation when you are trying to describe whether a greater fear of flying is irrational. The personal base rate of driving relative to flying would suggest that driving is a safer activity in that we have more experience of safe driving trips. The lack of knowledge of the base rate of trips in the air would contribute to this fear. But here is the question for me. Assume that people don't know the actual number of flights per day and underestimate that value. If they base their decision on that underestimate, are they being irrational? Or are they being rational, but working with incorrect assumptions about the data? Ken .edu) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
