Has anyone read the book "Panicology"? The full title is: Panicology: Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century by Hugh Aldersey-Williams and Simon Briscoe
I ask because there have been several articles recently either reviewing or summarizing it. For example, the NY Times personal health columnist Jane Brody provided a brief overview last week; see: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/health/19brod.html?ref=science This article served as the basis for a blog entry by Andrew Sullivan at the Atlantic website: see: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/05/obsessing-about-risk-and-crashes.html or http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c45669e201157098a69c970b The book was also reviewed on the other side of the pond along with another volume (Dan Gardner's "Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear"); see: http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/mar/09/society I haven't read the book yet but it seems like its focus is consistent with some views expressed on TiPS in recent months. On the basis of these articles, it seems that if "ordinary people" people are given the following choices: (1) irrational panic and fear about low probability events (2) being comforted by how much safer we are today relative to historical standards People will choose (1) unless they critically analyze the information that they are presented by the media and others (can this be the operation of the recognition heuristic in short-circuiting critical thinking?). Folks may also want to read the following article on people's over reaction to rare but dreaded risks: http://www.wired.com/politics/security/commentary/securitymatters/2007/05/securitymatters_0517 And here's a question to for class: Which results in more emergency room visits? (a) unintentional gunshots (b) accidental suffocation (c) household pets (d) who can afford to go to the emergency room now? For the answer, see: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/health/19stat.html?bl&ex=1243396800&en=7d373a985532733a&ei=5087%0A and/or http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5811a1.htm -Mike Palij New York University [email protected] --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
