If the test is released on the public and not used only with those already showing some symptoms, I think Stephen is definitely correct that false positives will be a major problem. What I found interesting in Stephen's rapid response was that he "declared no competing interests". Everyone has some competing interests. I expected more creativity from Stephen on that score. I would list some of them as being an over-educated Canadian citizen (who relishes in zinging the USA whenever possible) with an interest in critical thinking and a low tolerance for sloppy test construction. In fact, I think all posts on TIPS should require a declaration of competing interests since, as we all know from research in cognitive and social psychology, the person making the declaration is, of course, in the best position to determine if his or her opinions are biased by competing interests.
Rick Dr. Rick Froman, Chair Division of Humanities and Social Sciences Professor of Psychology Box 3055 John Brown University 2000 W. University Siloam Springs, AR 72761 [email protected] (479)524-7295 http://tinyurl.com/DrFroman -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, June 12, 2009 8:59 AM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: RE: [tips] Gigerenzer alert: an exercise On 11 Jun 2009 at 13:49, Rick Froman wrote: > I understand the principle here, and this may have already been addressed, > but is the number of 65-69 year olds per thousand with dementia the > appropriate comparison group? Unless we are going to deploy this test > willy-nilly on all 65-69 year olds (for example, when they show up to > renew their driver's license or each time they go to the doctor along with > their weight and bp), it seems that someone taking a screening test for > Alzheimer's is probably already in a select population of individuals who > are showing some symptoms or evidence of a disorder. Given its ease of administration, and the fact that people can give it to themselves in five minutes, I think there's a good chance that anyone who ever forgets a name will want to take this test to reassure themselves that they don't have Alzheimer's (and then find out the opposite). In addition, screening means that _everyone_ gets tested, whether they show symptoms or not. The 65-69 range seems to me the target population, as this is exactly the age when people are essentially symptomless but are starting to worry about it (trust me). > I think the test itself is also pretty humorous. With its questions like, > "Who is the Prime Minister?" "In what year did the 1st World War start?", Yes, it's unfortunate that they chose items which are clearly specific to a British population, which suggests a rather haphazard approach to test construction. These are easily adjusted to make the test more suitable internationally, but then there will be a need to re-do the validation. Not an impressive move on their part, and another indication that this is a bad test. > I think its secret purpose might be to declare the average USA citizen > demented Well. isn't he? After all, he put up with Bush for 8 years. 'Though he does seems to be in remission at the moment. If interested, you may now admire my rapid response to BMJ at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters?lookup=by_date&days=1 (Scan down a page or so to "TYM test: too many false positives".) You knew this was what I was up to, didn't you? Stpehen ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University e-mail: [email protected] 2600 College St. Sherbrooke QC J1M 1Z7 Canada Subscribe to discussion list (TIPS) for the teaching of psychology at http://flightline.highline.edu/sfrantz/tips/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
