Try this: Bill Scott Psychological Review, Volume 116, issue 1 (January 2009), p. 187-206
Pseudocontingencies An Integrative Account of an Intriguing Cognitive Illusion Fiedler, Klaus1; Freytag, Peter1; Meiser, Thorsten2 1. Department of Psychology, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany 2. Department of Psychology, University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany The term pseudocontingency (PC) denotes the logically unwarranted inference of a contingency between 2 variables X and Y from information other than pairs of xi, yi observations, namely, the variables' univariate base rates as assessed in 1 or more ecological contexts. The authors summarize recent experimental evidence showing that PCs can play a pivotal role in many areas of judgment and decision making. They argue that the exploitation of the informational value of base rates underlying PCs offers an alternative perspective on many phenomena in the realm of adaptive cognition that have been studied in isolation so far. Although PCs can lead to serious biases under some conditions, they afford an efficient strategy for inductive inference making in probabilistic environments that render base-rate information, rather than genuine covariation information, readily available. >>> "Jonathan Mueller" <[email protected]> 07/01/09 2:34 PM >>> Is anyone familiar with any research on people's ability or inability to distinguish between correlational and causal statements or claims? Thanks for any help, Jon =============== Jon Mueller Professor of Psychology North Central College 30 N. Brainard St. Naperville, IL 60540 voice: (630)-637-5329 fax: (630)-637-5121 [email protected] http://jonathan.mueller.faculty.noctrl.edu ( http://jonathan.mueller.faculty.noctrl.edu/ ) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
