He (Alan Cassels) speaks as if he might know something about the scientific process and calling for "logic and rationality" in dealing with the flu epidemic. But several things he said seemed inconsistent or illogical. For example, he says: "Repeating the refrain that the vaccine is "safe and effective" is fine for reassurance but it is starting to sound strained because *no one can say with 100 per cent confidence* [my emphasis] that the new flu vaccine won't cause adverse effects in some people." But no one can ever say about anything with 100% confidence say that something is safe for everyone. In fact, is that the standard we should aim for? Is there any drugs that we can say about? Furthermore, it is impossible to tell in an individual person whether an adverse outcome is related to the vaccine or something else - only population studies comparing incidence can do that.
He also says that public health officials are "doing their job" but then later says that it is unethical to promote vaccines without randomized studies. I agree with Stephen. Why not avoid illness (that for some difficult to pre-identify people is fatal). My students are sure stressed about missing school for a week when they get the flu - why not avoid that? Marie **************************************************** Marie Helweg-Larsen, Ph.D. Department Chair and Associate Professor of Psychology Kaufman 168, Dickinson College Carlisle, PA 17013 Office: (717) 245-1562, Fax: (717) 245-1971 http://www.dickinson.edu/departments/psych/helwegm/ **************************************************** -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 9:08 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] CBC News - Canada - Hype can make us all ill On 3 Nov 2009 at 19:58, Christopher D. Green wrote: > > Still worried about the swine flu? Check out this interview: > http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/11/02/f-viewpoint-cassels.html > > The best line is: "There is substantial evidence that the mortality rate from > H1N1 flu is actually > much smaller than seasonal flu." Very interesting and I find myself in agreement with most, if not all of it (although it would have useful to have a reply from a government spokesperson advocating vaccination). But here's the key point for me. Death is an extremely rare occurrence, so mortality is not the issue. However, coming down with the flu, whether swine or seasonal, is much more likely. Even though you will survive it, it's not going to be a pleasant experience, what with fever, coughing, headache, muscle pain, running nose, fatigue, not to mention a good chance of diarrhea and vomiting. I'd rather pass on that fine experience, or at least improve my chances of missing it. True, flu shots of a particular kind may be of limited value, and it's shameful that we have few randomized trials, but given the current reasonably sophisticated understanding of how vaccines work and admittedly imperfect statistics which say they do, I'm willing to bet in favour of them. Certainly, vaccination success against dread diseases such as polio and smallpox have transformed our lives for the better. Alarmist claims about how the flu vaccine will cause Guillain-Barré, autism, cancer, or bad breath don't cut it with me. I'm fine with the idea that risk is almost totally absent, except perhaps for minor injection discomfort. . So given its potential to prevent or ameliorate a very nasty experience, and its almost total lack of risk, I'd say, why not go for it. Might help, can't hurt. Except. I forget about those four to eight-hour waits, outside in an early Canadian winter, with people beside you sniffing and sneezing and coughing. If they could do something about that, I'd take the jab. Otherwise, I think I'll stay home. (And why must people be treated like cattle? Can't they just give us a number, or tell those with odd and even social insurance numbers to show up on different days, or go by alphabet? Why do people have to be subjected to such pointless and cruel waits?) Stephen ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University e-mail: [email protected] 2600 College St. Sherbrooke QC J1M 1Z7 Canada ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected]) --- To make changes to your subscription contact: Bill Southerly ([email protected])
