After considering all the activity on this one, I think I'll have
to nudge my position a bit closer to the opposition.
Concerning my objection to Marc Turner's post on being a "good
guesser" on the grounds that there's no such thing, I see now
that his problem for me wasn't faulty logic but ambiguous
phrasing. By "good guesser" he didn't mean someone who could beat
the odds but someone who, by chance alone, happened to do better
than what would be expected on average. I suggest "lucky guesser"
is a less confusing term for what he had in mind. And, contrary
to Karl Wuensch's recent post on the topic, "guessing" to me _is_
blind guessing, making a decision when one has absolutely no
information on which to base a choice.
I compliment Marc for his empirical approach to the issue. But
this is one case where collecting data isn't the way to go; logic
is. Here's my grand synthesis. Remember, the aim of this
exercise is to provide test-taking advice for students: if you
absolutely don't know, should you guess or should you leave the
question out?
Suppose you are clueless. And suppose you are a student (but I
repeat myself). If you have absolutely no information on which to
base a choice, on average it makes no difference whether you
guess or skip the question. But, as Marc points out, that's only
in the long run, and sometimes your guessing will bring you more
joy, and sometimes less, purely by chance. So in individual
cases, a guessing strategy will sometimes help, sometimes hurt.
So the advice to a student would be: If you have no basis
whatsoever for deciding among the five alternatives, guess if
you're a gamblin' man (or woman), or don't guess if you're a
cautious sort. But only the very poorest of students answering
the very best of questions will find him or herself in this
unhappy state of absolute cluelessness. More likely, the student
will be able to detect that at least one of the choices is less
than what it pretends to be.
Then, if you have even the slightest reason to reject even one
answer, Lady (or Lord) Luck will turn, ever so slightly, in your
favour, and you should certainly take a chance and guess at the
remaining choices.
I believe this brings me within shouting distance of Nancy
Melucci's position (hi, Nancy!), even if we don't exactly
correspond.
I hope but have my doubts that this will dispose of the issue.
-Stephen
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Stephen Black, Ph.D. tel: (819) 822-9600 ext 2470
Department of Psychology fax: (819) 822-9661
Bishop's University e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Lennoxville, QC
J1M 1Z7
Canada Department web page at http://www.ubishops.ca/ccc/div/soc/psy
Check out TIPS listserv for teachers of psychology at:
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