It's not psychology, but since it has come up here, I'll have to give my response here!
Reference Richard Hake's important post "The Cult of Statistical Significance", which contains a link to AERA-L listserv: http://listserv.aera.net/scripts/wa.exe?A2=ind1010&L=AERA-L&F=&S=&X=25C042478B751B1DD7&Y=rrhake%40earthlink.net&P=2053 Quote: "Math-Teach's Domenico Rosa (2010), in his post 'The Cult of Statistical Significance - A Book Review' has called attention to the review of Ziliak & McCloskey (2008) by Olle Häggström (2010). "According to Häggström: […] "Carver (1993) subjected the Michelson and Morley (1887) data to a simple analysis of variance (ANOVA) AND FOUND STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIRECTION THE LIGHT WAS TRAVELING (p < 0.001 )! He writes, 'It is interesting to speculate how the course of history might have changed if Michelson and Morley had been trained to use this CORRUPT FORM OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD, that is, testing the null hypothesis first. They might have concluded that there was evidence of SIGNIFICANT differences in the speed of light associated with its direction and that therefore there was evidence for the luminiferous ether...' […]" Carver suggests that "the course of history might have been changed…" It is arguable that there are two misconceptions here. The first is that definite conclusions would have been drawn from the results of *one* experiment. But (hopefully!) science doesn't work like that: "Other versions of the experiment were carried out with increasing sophistication. Kennedy and Illingworth both modified the mirrors to include a half-wave 'step', eliminating the possibility of some sort of standing wave pattern within the apparatus. Illingworth could detect changes on the order of 1/300th of a fringe, Kennedy up to 1/1500th. Miller later built a non-magnetic device to eliminate magnetostriction, while Michelson built one of non-expanding invar to eliminate any remaining thermal effects. Others from around the world increased accuracy, eliminated possible side effects, or both." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelson%E2%80%93Morley_experiment Second, the allusion to the course of [scientific] history presumably relates to Einstein's epoch-making 1905 special relativity paper, which takes as a fundamental premise the constancy of the speed of light in vacuo. But some eminent historians of physics have convincingly argued that the Michelson-Morley experiment (1887) did not play a significant role in Einstein's thought processes during the gestation period and final development of his theory. See J. Stachel, "How Did Einstein Discover Special Relativity?","Einstein and Ether Drift Experiments", "Einstein and Michelson" and "Einstein on the Theory of Relativity", reprinted in *Einstein From 'B' to 'Z'* (2002), pp. 157-214; G. Holton, "Einstein, Michelson, and the 'Crucial' Experiment'," chapter 8, *The Thematic Origins of Scientific Thought: Kepler to Einstein* (1988 edition), pp. 279-370; A. Pais, *Subtle is the Lord: The Science and the Life of Albert Einstein* (1982), pp. 111-137. Quote: "[The preceding material] shows that the principal argument which ultimately led [Einstein] to the special theory was not so much the need to resolve the conflict between the Michelson-Morley result and the version of aether theory prevalent in the late nineteenth century but rather, *independent of the Michelson-Morley experiment*, the rejection of this nineteenth century edifice as inherently unconvincing and artificial" (Pais, 1982, p. 117). Quote: "Yet, the experimenticist fallacy of imposing a logical sequence must be resisted... [...] The basic achievement of Einstein's theory... was that at the cost of sacrificing all these [traditional conceptions], it gave us a new unity in the understanding of nature" (Holton, 1988, p. 347). Allen Esterson Former lecturer, Science Department Southwark College, London [email protected] http://www.esterson.org --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=5703 or send a blank email to leave-5703-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
