On Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:10:28 -0800, Stephen Black wrote:
>Jim Alcock, the noted skeptic and debunker, has a cogent long piece 
>on the Bem kerfuffle in the current on-line issue of Skeptical 
>Inquirer.  After reading what he has to say, I think the predominant 
>reaction to Bem's paper would be, as mine was,  "What a mess!", 
>followed by "How did that dreck ever get past peer review to 
>publication!"
>
> http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/back_from_the_future 

NOTE: IMHO, Bem's research is probably problematic for reasons that
Alcock presents as well as for other reasons (remember the case of Leo
DiCara).  That being said, I just want to point out that Bem has responded 
to some of Alcock's criticisms on the Csicop website:
http://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/response_to_alcocks_back_from_the_future_comments_on_bem

It is curious that one of Bem's criticism's of Alcock's review is that it is
"too long" (where have I heard such pointless criticisms before?).  
Whether the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JPSP)
should have published Bem's article, I leave that judgement to the journal's 
editor who is competent enough to make that judgment (here is a link to
Charles "Chick" Judd webpage at the University of Colorado which
also links to his CV:
http://psych.colorado.edu/~cjudd/ ).
However,  I would suggest that Bem and all researchers who publish
in APA and other professional journals do the following:

(1)  Detailed procedural information beyond that presented in the published
article. Alcock suggests that Experiment 1 arctually represents two different
studies, one that involves 36 trials representing 3 conditions (12 trials of 
erotic 
pictures, 12 negative pictures and 12 neutral pictures; the first 40 
participants
were in this study) and another with 36 trial but with 18 trials of erotic 
pictures 
and 18 trials of non-erotic positive pictures (the remaining 60 participants 
received this treatment).  Bem actually reports this on pages 7-8 of his
pre-publication manuscript which is available here but passes over this
point in his rebuttal:
http://dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf
I tend to agree with Alcock that such a design makes it more difficult to
understand why Bem would claim that a 50% hit rate represents chance
performance -- this would appear to be true only for that last 60 participants
but Bem uses the entire sample of 100 participants for this claim.  I would
request that Bem (a) make available the stimulus materials and (b) more
detailed information on the procedure actually used in each subject's "session".
This should be done for all of the experiments.

(2)  Because Bem's research did not receive U.S. federal funding for his
research, he is under no obligation to make public his raw data.  I would
argue though that given the nature of the research, making the data available
to other researchers would be helpful in understanding what was done and
what was found.  I would understand Bem's reluctance to do so (it's hard
enough to get people who do receive federal funding to make their data
public -- they seem to think they own it instead of the taxpayers who funded
the research) and would not expect him to do so.  

Again, I think the issue will eventually be settled through replication or its
failure.  

-Mike Palij
New York University
[email protected]



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