I got exactly the same answer from a fellow juror in a criminal case. I asked him what he thought the probability was that the defendant actually was guilty. He gave me that 50% answer. Then I asked him if he understood what the judge was saying about "beyond a reasonable doubt." That really angered him. He responded "if he were not guilty, he would not be on trial." This guy was a college graduate, by the way.
Cheers, Karl L. Wuensch -----Original Message----- From: Lilienfeld, Scott O [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Tuesday, September 20, 2011 8:01 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: RE: [tips] Statistics question: Death from the skies? By the way, one of my favorite misunderstandings of probability, which I've mentioned in my classes, came from the fall of Skylab in 1979 (younger TIPSters will have little idea what I'm talking about). I recall a NYC TV station asking people on the street about the likelihood that they'd be hit by a falling piece of Skylab. One gentleman, in complete seriousness, answered 50%. When the puzzled reporter asked him why, he responded (I'm paraphrasing), again, in complete earnestness, "Well, either it will hit me or it won't. So that's a 50% probability." ...Scott Scott O. Lilienfeld, Ph.D. Department of Psychology, Room 473 Emory University 36 Eagle Row, Atlanta, Georgia 30322 [email protected]; 404-727-1125 --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=12851 or send a blank email to leave-12851-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
