Hi I think it is the failure to turn over the 7 that most clearly demonstrates the confirmation bias. Participants are NOT checking an outcome that would render the premise false, namely finding a vowel on the other side of the 7.
Their actual choices are a little more complex to interpret, I think. Turning over the E could be done to confirm (find even) or to disconfirm (find odd) the premise. Impossible to know without more information. And turning over the 4 could be evidence of confirmation bias (i.e., checking for the presence of a positive exemplar of the rule). But turning over the 4 would actually be relevant if the premise was interpreted as IF AND ONLY IF, rather than IF. Misinterpreting IF as IF AND ONLY IF leads to some fallacious reasoning, and could be operating here. So, I would probably focus on the not choosing 7 as evidence for the confirmation bias (which might better be called a failure to reject bias?). Take care Jim James M. Clark Professor & Chair of Psychology [email protected] Room 4L41A 204-786-9757 204-774-4134 Fax Dept of Psychology, U of Winnipeg 515 Portage Ave, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0R4 CANADA >>> Julie Osland <[email protected]> 06-Nov-12 10:41 AM >>> Dear tipsters I need help with the confirmation bias and how the responses of the majority of students faced with the original Wason Card Selection Task illustrate that bias. The example in the book is: Suppose that each of the cards below has a number on one side and a letter on the other, and someone tells you: *If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.* Which one(s) of the cards would you need to turn over to decide whether the person is lying? E K 4 7 To be clear, I totally understand what the confirmation bias is [tendency to search for and interpret information in ways that supports one*s existing beliefs or expectations] and what the correct answer to the Wason Card Task is, and why [E and 7*modus ponens and modus tollens, respectively]. According to secondary sources [a gen psych and a social psych text], Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) found the two most comment responses to be turning over both cards E and 4, and turning over just card E. These secondary sources say that these responses [E and 4, and just E] illustrate the confirmation bias without explaining how these responses illustrate the bias. Turning over the card E could result in finding a 4 *an outcome that would confirm the rule, but it could result in finding a 7 if the rule is false. Because this option could potentially confirm or disconfirm the rule I don*t see this choice as a definite confirmation strategy. I can see how choosing 4 would potentially confirm the rule, even though affirming the consequent is not a valid argument. Turning over the 4 and finding an E would confirm the hypothesis. Am I missing something obvious regarding as two how both the E only and E and 4 combination are a clear example of the confirmation bias? Please help. -- Dr. Julie A. Osland, M.A., Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Psychology Wheeling Jesuit University 316 Washington Avenue Wheeling, WV 26003 Office: (304) 243-2329 e-mail: [email protected] --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=21533 or send a blank email to leave-21533-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=21536 or send a blank email to leave-21536-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
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