Hi I'm on the fence about clinical judgment, but definitely on the side of the dart board over the stock-brokers, especially for long-term predictions.
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDEQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.studyfinance.com%2Fjfsd%2Fpdffiles%2Fv8n1%2Fliang.pdf&ei=JGn-UseWJsHtoASb4IEw&usg=AFQjCNGLO4Js3e-KUSF1FI1oU-99ktUyrA&bvm=bv.61535280,d.cGU Of course, such findings illustrate the problem of coming up with priors. Perhaps there is also some element of an infinite regress ... is your evidence for the priors built on Bayesian reasoning ... what about the priors for that .... and so on. Take care Jim Jim Clark Professor & Chair of Psychology 204-786-9757 4L41A From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, February 14, 2014 12:26 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: RE: [tips] Scientific method: Statistical errors : Nature News & Comment Paul C Bernhardt wrote: "My only problem with the Bayesian approach, described elegantly in the article, is that the posterior probabilities are so dependent on the prior probabilities." To which Chris Green replied: "I hear this all this time, but I disagree. Even wildly divergent priors converge fairly rapidly in the face of the same data. In any case, priors are not necessarily reflective of mere "bias." They are often reflective of true expertise that has been developed informally in a field. To use a classic example, if you want to know what the probability is that two countries will go to war over, say, the next decade, do you think it is better to start with the base probability that ANY two random countries will go to war, or would you rather start with the estimate of people who are already expert in the history, cultures, and economies of the two countries in question?" Or, in a more psychology-related example, if you want to know the probability that a particular clinical intervention will be effective with a particular psychological disorder, do you think it is better to start with the base probability that ANY two random interventions will work, or would you rather start with the clinical judgment of therapists in the field? Or, if you want to know what the probability is that a particular new hire will be an effective employee, do you think it is better to start with the base probability of the current success rate of new hires on the job or would you rather start with the clinical judgment of personnel directors? :) (I won't stretch it any further with reference to monkeys with dart boards and stock brokers.) I do agree with the points of the article and I plan to include this article in my readings for my upper division research class. I will also use it to shape the approach I take to these issues in my undergraduate stats classes, although I am already careful to explain what "statistical significance" means and doesn't mean. As to the cultural entrenchment question, I don't know that it is specifically psychological culture in which p-values are used in research. Most introductory statistics classes seem to teach it the same way without regard to the particular discipline in which statistics will be used (I guess I am thinking mostly of biology and medicine and I could be wrong about my perception of other sciences that use inferential statistics). Rick Dr. Rick Froman, Chair Division of Humanities and Social Sciences Professor of Psychology Box 3519 John Brown University 2000 W. University Siloam Springs, AR 72761 [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> (479) 524-7295 http://bit.ly/DrFroman --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9&n=T&l=tips&o=34210 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-34210-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu<mailto:leave-34210-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu> --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: [email protected]. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5&n=T&l=tips&o=34212 or send a blank email to leave-34212-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
