Yeah, this matches what a bunch of us have been seeing.

The elevated state counts were already climbing in the days before 0.4.9.10, so 
the version bump itself doesn’t look like the trigger. Timing lines up with the 
circuit-building DoS wave that’s been running since late June (the one that 
pushed overload-general from the usual 2-3 % up past 12 % of the network). A 
full state table is just the same saturation taken one step further — once you 
hit the limit nothing new can connect and the relay drops offline for a while, 
exactly like the multi-hour outage some people reported.

Contabo ranges are definitely carrying a big chunk of it. Same pattern others 
mentioned: lots of IPs from the same /24s, none of them relays, each holding 
50–250 connections. That’s consistent with the current 
DoSConnectionMaxConcurrentCount limit being enforced per Tor process rather 
than per host — spin up a few instances on one VPS and you can park a few 
hundred connections from a single source without ever tripping the defense. 
Feels like a real gap.

On the practical side, if you’re on FreeBSD/pf and still have headroom, just 
raise the state limit and turn on syncookies once you cross a threshold. That 
kept things usable for me even when the table was well into the hundreds of 
thousands. “Sloppy” states on the ORPort rules can also quiet the BAD State 
noise if you’re seeing sequence complaints. MetricsPort is worth turning on so 
you can watch the actual onionskin drops and connection counters instead of 
guessing from the heartbeat numbers. Restarting clears the pile-up for a bit, 
but the connections come right back while the wave is still going.

Longer term the real fixes have to come from Tor itself (host-wide connection 
caps, better idle circuit cleanup under pressure, aggregate rate limits, etc.). 
Those are already being talked about, so hopefully something lands before this 
becomes the new normal.

Annoying as hell, but at least the relay itself is still doing its job once the 
firewall stops choking.
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