Re padding see
https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/wiki/doc/TorFAQ#Youshouldsendpaddingsoitsmoresecure.
Some related papers in the bibliography page:
http://freehaven.net/anonbib/topic.html

For the use case mentioned: being one of 40 to 150 people using Tor (or 
BitCoin) in a low tech country like Uganda could be enough to get you under 
surveillance, at which point no amount of padding will help you, so hopefully 
you would be using some method to hide that.

Also, an adversary in a regional language area would first try to narrow down 
who everyone in the web forum is (or find their friends) in real life based on 
their writing style and content, even if users werent required to register and 
sign in to post.
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