time, especially if something works well and is cheap. Still, over the
last 5-10 years we've seen more innovation even with light bulbs, so
that now we have those florescrent ones that fit in incandescent
sockets, the "true light" ones that give off a more blue tone in order
to simulate daylight more, and we're just starting to see LED's that use
very little power and will last much longer than any standard light bulb
(even florescents) out there. So, while it's true it's taken the light
bulb a while to change, we may not recognize it at all in 10 or 20
years... So, really, while it's true that when some things work well
they can stay around for a while, the pace of change itself is
quickening which tends to make me think that even those long-lasting
things won't last as long in the future.
But anyway, computers are a little different from light bulbs. Light
bulbs have one function, whereas computers can be used for multitudes of
things, and from the beginning they have coninuously evolved at fast
rates. Just look back 30 years ago from the start of the PC era and you
see a huge box that was used mostly for hobbyist tinkerers. You could
do a few things with it, but only a tiny fraction of what you can do
now, and it was much more expensive, etc. etc. I don't think the
industry has gotten to some "maturity level" where computers are just
thought of as commodities. We still may see computers go back to being
"dumb terminals" where most of the processing and data storage happens
online and takes the drudgery of a lot of that stuff off of the
individual's hands, and allows for ubiquitous access either via your
personal devices and/or lots of public terminals. There are also
developments in quantum computing that when made into consumer products
could make our current systems look like the abacus.
Levi Wallach
<http://twelveblackcodemonkeys.com> - Blog
<http://dvdmon.com> - DVD Reviews
<http://wallachexpressions.smugmug.com> - Photos
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Michael J. Barnes
> Sent: Monday, May 08, 2006 10:09 PM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: [Treo] RE: One device for all? - phone to take over
> mp3 players
>
> It scares me, but we just might still be running windows.
> Yes, technology is moving quickly...but parts of technology
> don't change too much. Think about it...the incandescent
> bulbs that do 90% of the lighting in our homes hasn't changed
> much at all since it first burnt on October 19, 1879.
>
> Michael
>
>
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