If you're reading this, your next phone will almost certainly come from one of these six categories: iPhone, Android, Symbian, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, Palm Pre.
You could be an outlier and go with something else, but we can probably ignore the existence of Sony Ericsson, LG, Samsung, Motorola, Access Linux, OpenMoko, PalmOS and all the other secondary or tertiary players. If Bob Cringely can be believed, and he usually can, only three of those six categories have a chance of surviving with a reasonable and profitable share of the market. You read him here: http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20081023_005500.html He's basically saying that there is space in the market for only three platforms, with an 85-10-5 % distribution and that those will be: iPhone with 85% of the market, Android with 10%, and Blackberry, Symbian or something completely new with the remaining 5%. When I read that, back in October, I agreed completely. Now, I'm thinking and hoping he may be wrong. I'm hoping the Palm Pre takes that 10%. I do believe the iPhone will lead the market for the foreseeable future. It has tremendous head-start, a vibrant developer community, and the inimitable power of Steve Jobs behind it. Apple will not rest on its laurels and will probably do something to gobsmack the world with the iPhone during 2009, especially after what we've just seen this week. Android has been pretty underwhelming so far, and even though we're supposed to see new devices within the next six months, things look a bit boring over there. Blackberry had a disastrous setback with the launch of the Storm, missing a great chance to become sexy and an object of techno-lust. Also, their main offering -email- has been replicated by everyone now. Symbian is the ultimate wannabe has-been. There's just no there there, despite having tons of money and good ideas. Now, the Palm Pre. THAT was an amazing surprise. I never expected Palm to pull it off so well. I think I haven't been this excited since the Pilot. If they deliver on everything they've promised, it could be the equivalent of Apple's OS X on the desktop: a viable and impressive alternative to the dominant platform, with a steadily increasing market share. The Cupertino crowd must be shell-shocked that Palm has pulled a classic Apple move on them! That is, IF they deliver. I'm worried about apps. iPhone seems to have a developer scene as active as Palm used to have eight years ago. Palm really needs to get the ball rolling ASAP to get developers on board, otherwise, WebOS will never really take off and we will be left in the lurch again. They won't have the luxury of relying on all the old apps, because they won't work now. They'll have to woo everyone once more, so they need to start quickly and strongly. Palm, if you're listening, pay attention: You say you're back? Great! We're right here. We nearly left, but we're back too. We'll all let bygones be bygones and stand together once again, and love every minute of it. We'll tell everyone about you and show off our gestures and BEAM with pride whenever we pull our Pre out. We'll be there for you, in blogs and forums and Slashdot and Digg and Flickr and everywhere. You'll be smiling all the way to the bank and we'll wave you on joyously. Just make sure you deliver. Cheers, Eugenio Perea
