Those are some excellent points onpon4. Thank you for making them.
I'll try to address some of them. First, I didn't say MS made a mistake; I'm
the crazy conspiracy theory guy--remember!? I was making an argument against
those who said MS could have made a mistake. I'm also the guy dumb enough to
challenge you to come up with an example of a mega corporation making this
kind of mistake. Why would I challenge you to do that if I thought MS was
making a mistake--I'm claiming it is not a mistake on their part.
Nor did I say that I thought MS believed it would gain or lose users. I was
questioning the assumption that this would be good for us because it would
lead more people to the free software movement. That assumption was the
primary one behind those arguing this was a good thing. It may be that it
does not lead to an increase in users of either camp, at least in the
short-run.
"So in fact, this could lead to them using Windows more often"
Right! That is one positive outcome for MS and negative one for us.
"The only people who would stop becoming Windows users would be those who
come across the libre software movement and start to agree with us, and
Ubuntu doesn't lead users in that direction."
Right! Again, recall that I'm the one claiming that this will somehow benefit
MS more than it will benefit us. Ubuntu not leading users in our direction
does not make this project of Ubuntu on windows useful for us.
Ultimately we are a competitor of MS. We compete for their users like we do
for the users of all non-free software. If this resolves in our getting 5
users migrate to free software for every 50 users that become resolved never
to migrate to free software (i.e they no longer feel they need to) then this
will be a win for MS.
In the short run this may look like it benefits both sides in different ways
without a clear 'winner'. My belief is it will definitely benefit MS more
and make them the clear winner.
How can this happen. Well just one example is a scenario I marked out much
earlier in this thread:
"My theory is that it's all about apps. Last time I went to BB at least 80%
of the laptops had touch screens. This has been and continues to be the wave
of the future. The one with the better apps wins. The majority of mobile app
developers focus on developing for iOS or Android. If MS can make development
of apps for their app store quick and easy, that could send the development
trend their way."
If this in turn made MS more attractive to more people it will lead to an
increase in user retention, which is not good for us; We want them not to
retain their users. [btw, you must already realize we have to have something
that works on laptops with touch screens, right?]
In the end, none of us--including you--can be sure how this will pan out.
You have your opinion and I have mine. You are probably more experienced than
I am in many of these matters, but as I said before I will wait and see what
rms says (he is more experienced/knowledgeable/wise in these matters than all
of us put together). If he agrees with you, I will recant, beg for mercy,
and try to never to contradict the Trisquel veterans again! :p
