Re: [TruthTalk] LDS Church has ZERO Growth!

[Dave]

DH, are your figures correct about the 100,000 conversions via missionary endeavor? DAVEH:   No John, I don't think they are correct.  I merely based that estimate on what I remember Kevin posting awhile back....1.9 conversions per missionary per year.  But I am on vacation right now, and don't have access to my home computer to search for that number.     Kevin did mention a report by Packham though, who said... Approximately half of all converts each year are outside the United States. Applying that fact to the 273,973 convert baptisms, deducting those who will no longer be active after the first year, the net increase by converts for 2000 was approximately 104,000. Placing that figure against the 87,500 who took the trouble to resign officially, and considering the fact that many who become disenchanted with Mormonism simply walk away without requesting name removal, one must conclude that the net growth of the church - other than by breeding children - is close to zero. ........which indicates there were a lot more conversions, but reflects the approximately 100,000 as being a retention number.  I think that may be the number to which Kevin was previously referring.     As for your comment....... It appears to me that birthing Mormon additions into the church is, by far, the most significant of "missionary"  endeavors ..........I think it can be safely assumed that there are more LDS mothers working to that end than there are missionaries in the field!    :-) [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Well, from the info given below  --  "trickle" does appear to be a rather good word.   I.e., if the missionary product is 100,000  and this is U.S. A. product,  the growth percentage added back into the US Mormorn Church is .02%.    If it is world wide and we assume a membership of 11 million, the figure is .00909 %.    It appears to me that birthing Mormon additions into the church is, by far, the most significant of "misionary"  endeavors   --   the orothodox church in the USA "converts" 80% children.     DH, are your figures correct about the 100,000 conversions via missionary endeavor?   Jd       -----Original Message----- From: Dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: TruthTalk@mail.innglory.org Sent: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 22:23:31 -0700 Subject: Re: [TruthTalk] LDS Church has ZERO Growth! DAVEH:  I did not find that one (post the link if you can find it), but did run across several instances where the growth rate is stated to be positive, though less than previous years.....      In fact, according to the church's own accounts, the growth rate is declining! In 1996 the church reported a growth rate of 4.24%. In 1999, the growth rate had fallen by 44%, to 2.37%, as reported in the December 1999 issue of the official church magazine Ensign. .........and as you posted below...... "The average missionary in 1989 brought 9.1 people into the church, while in 2000 the average missionary brought 4.6 people into the church. When one accounts for actual activity and retention rates, with the great majority of LDS convert growth occurring in Latin America and other areas with low retentio n and only 20-25% of convert growth occurring in North Am erica, it can be determined that of the 4.6 persons baptized by the average missionary each year, approximately 1.3 will remain active." .........So Kevin, I don't know why you would suggest That growth has slowed to a trickle, or no growth when the missionaries alone (not counting the birth rate of LDS folks) is accounting for about 100,000 per year.  That hardly seems like no growth to me.  And if you consider that a trickle, it seems like a pretty big trickle.  I suppose in a few years we can look again at the numbers the National Council of Churches stats...... http://www.ncccusa.org/news/050330yearbook.html ..........to see if the LDS Church is in decline as you are suggesting.  Do you suppose it will eventually climb to #4 position, knocking out the United Methodist Church in the process?  Time will tell....     As for your suggestion about the Church keeping the retention rate a secret, I'm not sure one can even quantify such data.  -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dave Hansen [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.langlitz.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you wish to receive things I find interesting, I maintain six email lists... JOKESTER, OPINIONS, LDS, STUFF, MOTORCYCLE and CLIPS.