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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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*** A Viewers Guide To Tonight: Finally -- Election Day. And perhaps the best
way to gauge how McCain and Obama are faring is by following the poll closing
times for key states. The first closing times come at 7:00 pm ET for Georgia,
Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. In particular, if Virginia is called
early for Obama, that will be a sign of a possible big night for the Democrats.
But if there isn't an early call, that could be some welcome news for McCain.
While Georgia and South Carolina aren't considered true battleground states,
they could also signal how the night is going; in short, these are the
landslide indicators: If they're too close too call early in the night, that
will tell us that African-American turnout was HUGE. In addition, Kentucky's
polls close at 7:00 pm ET, and that will give us some early insight into Mitch
McConnell's political health and whether Democrats might have what it takes to
reach 60 Senate seats. (Note: Polls actually close in the Eastern Time Zone
parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 pm ET, but the races won't be called
until 7:00 pm, when polls close the Central Time Zone in those states. However,
we will see returns start coming in at 6:00 pm.)
*** From 7:30 To 1:00 AM: The next batch of poll closings comes at 7:30 pm ET,
for North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. At 8:00 pm ET, polls officially
close in Florida (although for most of the state, it's actually 7:00 pm ET),
Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is called early for
Obama, that would be a severe blow to McCain and would force him to hang on to
virtually every state that Bush carried in 2004. But keep an eye on the four
states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama wins just out
of the four, it becomes nearly impossible for McCain to get to 270 -- even if
he wins Pennsylvania. And if Virginia is called for Obama, then it's down to
the Iron Triangle of survival for McCain: Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Add any one of those three to Virginia and it's basically checkmate. So McCain
has to win three of those four state. At 9:00 pm ET, polls close in the Western
battlegrounds of Colorado and New Mexico. At 10:00 pm ET, polls close for Iowa,
Montana, and Nevada. At 11:00 pm ET, polls close in California, and this is
important if the night is going especially well for Obama: Because of its 55
electoral votes, probably the earliest that we might see the election called
for Obama (i.e., him going crossing the 270 mark) would be at 11:00 pm ET. The
last state to close its polls will be Alaska at 1:00 am ET, and that will be a
time to check on the status of Ted Stevens' re-election bid. By the way,
consider the following: Even in victory, it's possible McCain underperforms
Bush in every single state in the Union.
*** Obama Wins Dixville Notch And Hart's Location: As usual, residents of tiny
Dixville Notch in New Hampshire began the voting at midnight, and Obama came
out ahead -- the first Democrat to do so since 1968. The New Hampshire Union
Leader: "The town, home to around 75 residents, began voting at the stroke of
midnight. The final tally was 15 votes for Sen. Barack Obama and six votes for
Sen. John McCain. Dixville Notch has opened its polls shortly after midnight
each Election Day since 1960, drawing national media attention for being the
first place in the country to make its presidential preferences known. The last
Democrat it picked was Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon in 1968. President
Bush won the town in a landslide in the past two elections: He captured 73
percent of the vote in 2004 (19 residents picked Bush while six preferred Sen.
John Kerry), and secured 80 percent of the vote in 2000 (21 votes for Bush,
five votes for Al Gore)." Also in New Hampshire, "Hart's Location reported 17
votes for Obama, 10 for McCain, and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent
Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots, but got no votes."
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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