On Wed, Jan 14, 2009 at 3:30 AM, Ben Scripps <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> U.S. market penetration of other historical home entertainment
> technologies at the end of their respective third year of
> introduction:
>
> TV - 3%
> Color TV - .5%
> VHS - .5%
> CD - 1.5%
> DVD - 4.5%
> HDTV - 1%
> Blu-ray - 7.75%

It seems to me that it's not the market penetration that's the
concern, its the lifespan.

The top 4 items on the list all had lifespans of at least 20 years.
DVD's period of dominance has only been about 10 years, and it is
already assumed to be on the way out. What that tells me is that
obsolescence is coming faster.

I think it's an open question whether Blu-ray makes it that long, or
if it is superseded by a superior technology - likely downloading
and/or streaming, possibly something else.

John

-- 
John Edwards
I used to put quotes here.

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