On Mon, Sep 14, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2009 at 10:33 PM, David Bruggeman <[email protected]> wrote: >> What a couple of smug bastards...not to mention that Dan and his Band were >> on Bravo at least a couple of years ago, so Jay is just clueless. >> >> I wish Joel shows clips from this on The Soup. > > The question I am left with is would Jay gain any viewers who weren't > already fans?
I have not watched it yet, but he does not have to attract too many new viewers to be successful here. When this was announced last December I made some back of the envelope calculations, that were consistent with some things that Aaron Barnhart wrote. Leno was getting 4.5 - 5 million viewers a night at 11:35. NBC was averaging 7.5 million a night at 10:00 last year. AB estimated that Leno would get about 5.2 million viewers at 10:00 based only on duplicating his same percentage of homes using television. He would only have to get like 7% more of the hut than he did at 11:35 to average around 6 million viewers, which would give him about 80% of the viewers that NBC averaged at that hour last year - and his show will be much less than 80% the cost to produce. Plus it will be in first run during many of the weeks that the other networks are in re-runs, when his ratings will probably improve. At 6 million viewers Leno would do better than NBC did last year on Monday and Friday night, and AB thought Leno will do better on Thursday than whatever show NBC would have used to replace ER ( I guess the idea there is that Leno is a good match with the 9:00 comedies). It will be real interesting to see the ratings - they will probably be a bit artificially high this first week, but if they settle in around the 6 million level NBC will have done very well. I have always thought this was a good gamble by them - though if the reports I am seeing are true that the show is little more than the Leno Tonight Show without the desk, I will be watching it much less often than 3 times a week (or even month). --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
