WK 2-3 4 5 6 7 8 9 M: 5.7 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.6/1.3 4.3/1.3 4/1.2 T: 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.4 6.1/1.8 6.5/2.0 5.7/1.4 W: 6.2 5.7 6.2 5.2 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.3 4.6/1.4 Th: 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.4/1.6 4.7/1.7 4.6/1.6 F: 5.6 5.3 5.0 6.2 5.1/1.2 4.6/1.2 4.7/1.2 *AVE: 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.0/1.5 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.4*
WK 10 11 12 13 14 15 M: 4.6/1.2 4.5/1.4 4.7/1.3 4.7/1.3 4.8/1.5 5.8/1.6 T: 6/1.8 4.9/1.9 DARK* 8.4/2.9 5.2/1.8 5.2/1.5 W: 5.2/1.4 5.1/1.6 5.6/1.5 4.5/1.3 5.5/1.6 4.6/1.1 Th: 4.8/1.6 5.0/1.5 4.7/1.5 5.8/1.3 5.2/1.7 DARK F: 5.1/1.5 3.5/1 4.8/1.4 5.8/1.9 5.6/1.4 3.7/1.1 *AVE: 5.0/1.5 4.6/1.5 5.2/1.5* 5.8/1.8 5.2/1.6 4.8/1.4** Week 15 was clearly not good for Leno. This even taking into consideration the atypical viewing patterns of a Christmas week. Oddly, the week started well - he had his best Monday numbers in a long time (these numbers were so good I assumed the TV By The Numbers guys made a mistake, but they were the same at Zap to it - though neither of these sources commented that both in total viewers and in the demo this was his best Monday since the early couple of weeks of the season. MNF got a huge rating (Giants vs Redskins) but it was a blowout, so maybe all those young men switched over to Leno back east. Even with that initial shot in the arm though, Leno's numbers for the week were below the Mendoza Line - 1.4 in the demo (NBC has said that 1.5 is the minimum number for profitability). Leno was dark on Thursday night (Wonderful Life kicked everyone's ass Christmas Eve BTW) so to calculate Leno's weekly average I substituted his average Thursday numbers since Week 7). I guess NBC could argue that the numbers are so low because of the (as far as I know) first Leno rerun on Friday night. But the real bad news for Leno is not in the weekly numbers - it is in how he did against rerun competition. CBS ran repeats every night at 10:00 this week. ABC had reruns and specials. Just as a reminder, here is what Leno said at the Critics Press Tour in Pasadena this last August ( http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/08/jay-leno-tca-panel.html): ****** "Leno was pretty specific. He said he expects to beat scripted programs when they're in repeats -- if not in originals.'Do I expect to beat 'CSI: Miami'?' he asked. 'No. Do I expect to beat them in repeats? Yeah. I don't expect to get them on the straights but catch them in the corners.'" ****** But the facts are that Leno is not beating them in the corners (I take it this is a car racing metaphor for doing better than the competition on the repeats). Leno lost to repeats of CSI: Miami, The Good Wife and CSI: NY on CBS M-W. He lost to a repeat of Numb3rs on CBS on Friday in total viewers (got creamed actually) though he basically tied in the demo (he got 1.05 to 1.0). On ABC he beat rr of Castle and some kind of Oprah special on M&T, lost to 2 repeats of Cougar Town on W (in the demo) and lost in the demo to the last hour of the Pirates movie (though he barely beat it in total viewers). I think this is the first week that Leno had no first run episode of a regular series as competition since his Week 1, and he had no victorious nights at all. I wrote last week that "Against total rerun competition I think he needs to be at least in the 5.5/1.7 range" - instead he did 4.8 and 1.4. Yikes! Leno may take some solace is beating or finishing a close third to ABC's reruns and specials, but I doubt it helps very much. A big part of the economic argument for this show was that it would win against high priced powerhouse dramas when they were in repeats; yet in the first full (well, almost full, minus Thursday) week of trying, he not only came in at best tied for second, but posted a weekly average below the profitability marker. Not good. Plus, he demonstrated that he has very little appeal when he goes into reruns himself - I don't see how NBC can schedule an entire week of Leno reruns based on this performance. I don't know when the first non-Olympic week Leno is scheduled to take a vacation, but NBC will certainly have to put on something other than Leno repeats, and what happens then if they do better than Leno? -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
