On Sat, Jan 30, 2010 at 10:51 PM, JW <[email protected]> wrote:

> > If there is one fact that sealed the doom of
> > that show, it was probably that - he never did "catch them in the turns"
> -
> > never did make up significant ground against the CBS reruns like he
> > repeatedly claimed he would. I wish Oprah (who claimed to know so much
> about
> > how television works) would have asked him about that.
>
> To be fair, Leno made no excuses for his prime time performance in
> that interview. He'd have just said "We didn't do as well as we
> hoped." and moved on.
>

Right. I didn't mean that I wished Oprah had nailed him on this, like a
cross-examining prosecutor going after a lying wittness. I meant that I wish
she had asked him to talk more about why he thinks he was not able to do
better against reruns, when he had been so confident that he would, and when
the success of the entire Leno Experiment depended so critically on it.

My guess is he would have said (if he was in the mood to reflect) that he
and NBC underestimated the role of habit and comfort in primetime viewing.
There are a large fraction of American television viewers who would rather
watch reruns of familiar programs than sample a new program that is not part
of their routine. I don't think it was so much that millions of people said
"I would rather watch a rerun than Leno - he sucks", but simply "I watch CSI
Miami on Monday nights at 10:00, whether it is a rerun or not". And if Leno
had said this, I think he would have been correct. There is one other factor
which he probably would not have added, but which is critical: Despite what
the NBC PR line was all fall and winter, they really needed Leno's numbers
against first run programs to be higher; given that they were just barely
above the minimum, it put more of a premium on Leno improving dramatically
against reruns - something he was never able to do. He could have weathered
that storm if his baseline performance was closer to what they thought it
would be.

-- 
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