The TV By The Numbers guys, with their usual, still not explained pro-NBC slant, report that Leno crushed Dave in the ratings Monday night.
These numbers won't really mean anything for a couple of weeks (Conan's first night on the Tonight Show he got 9.2M viewers, vs Leno's first night back at 5.4M - I don't think you will see NBC trumpeting that). More helpful is the Hollywood Reporter, which reports that Leno's numbers were 45% better than Conan's average, 14% better than Leno's average for the 1st Q of 2009. They also tell us that Dave, while badly beaten, was still up over his average. These last two pieces might be bad news for Leno, and I would not be so quick to conclude as TVBtN does, that "all is forgiven". I assumed that Leno would be much higher than his previous average for a couple of weeks, then settle into a level where he was higher than Dave (and Conan) but lower than his previous. Being only 14% higher than his usual, and seeing that Dave held and even added to his usual audience, suggests that Leno may not stay at as high a level as I had assumed - though of course it is equally possible that my mistake was in assuming that his ratings would decline after the first two weeks. If 3 weeks from now Leno is in the 4.4M range and lower, he will be in trouble. If he is at 4.8 or higher, he will be in good shape. ******************************* http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/02/leno-crushes-letterman-in-return/43507 "in the local people meter markets Leno was twice as popular with adults 18-49, scoring a 2.0 rating vs a 1.0 rating for Letterman. In the metered market houshold ratings between 11:30p-12:30a Jay Leno’s return to The Tonight Show dominated Leterman and Late Show. Leno had a 5.4/14 (household rating/share) to Letterman’s 3.0/8. Sure, Leno’s first night back (and perhaps first week or two back) is likely inflated by a post-Olympic halo, but the early indication is “all is forgiven.” Nightline had a 3.4/8 between 11:30p-12:00a." ********************************** http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/03/lenos-tonight-return-tops-monday-late-night.html "NBC's "Tonight Show" returned Monday evening to a solid if unspectacular rating that exceeded Leno's comparable "Tonight" average from last year, yet underperformed Conan O'Brien's "Tonight Show" debut from last June. "Tonight" drew 6.6 million viewers and a 1.6 adults 18-49. That's down 58% from Conan O'Brien's first night as the new "Tonight" host -- which was out of season, and without an Olympic run-up. Leno's number looks better -- up 45% -- when you compare it to O'Brien's "Tonight" average in the time period this season. Leno's return was also a bit higher than his first-quarter average in the slot last year, up 14%. David Letterman's "Late Show" was easily beaten last night, drawing 3.8 million viewers and a 1.1 rating, which is still higher-than-usual for the show. NBC's "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" drew 2.1 million viewers and a 0.7 compared to Craig Ferguson's 1.8 million, 0.5." -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
