Late Shift Report
3/1 3/8
Leno Dave Leno Dave
M: 6.6/1.6 3.8/1.1 4.4/1.1 4.2/1.3
T: 5.8/1.6 3.7/1.0 4.2/1.1 4.0/0.9
W: 5.4/1.5 3.7/1.0 1.3 1.1
TH: 5.1/1.5 3.9/1.1 1.2 .9
F: 4.9/1.2 3.2/.9 1.2 .8
*Ave 5.6/1.5 3.7/1.0 4.3/1.2 4.1/1*
It really is hard to get the late night numbers. TV By The Numbers reports
what they call the early numbers (based on a sample of markets - maybe the
large markets?) and late numbers, which they also call national numbers -
except those late numbers sometimes don't show up, and I can't find them
anywhere else either. This week I only have the late numbers for Monday and
Tuesday, though I did find a report of the average viewer numbers through
Thursday.
It does seem safe to say that Leno's lead over Dave has decreased
significantly in his second week back. In the first week back Leno had 34%
more viewers, and a 31% higher demo rating. In week 2 that leads appears to
have been more than cut in half - Leno had only 5% more viewers (only Monday
and Tuesday) and 15% higher demo rating. An AP story reported that, through
Thursday, Leno was averaging 4.3M for the week and Dave 4M, which is an 8%
lead for Leno. Dave probably did get an artificial bump on Monday with the
conviction of his extortionist, and Dave gets his worst numbers on Friday,
so I bet his average viewership for the week is probably 10% lower than
Leno. This is significant to me.
I found a report that, for May 2009, Leno was averaging 5M, while Dave was
at 3.7M, meaning Leno was getting 26% more viewers than Dave. When NBC
announced they had plunged the dagger in Conan's back and replaced him with
Leno, I predicted that Leno would stabilize at about half his former lead
over Dave (which would be about a 13% lead) - but already by the end of Week
2 it appears that he has dropped below that mark, and is only leading Dave
by around 10%. This can not be seen as good news at NBC. I am sure Dave and
CBS think they have a chance to beat Leno, and want to badly, but I am also
sure that they are overjoyed to have improved their position relative to
Leno so much in less than a year. Just think of the headlines had there been
no other drama or histrionics in late night, and in less than 12 months Dave
had gone from losing 3.7M to 5M to only losing 4.0M to 4.3M. The other thing
to note of course is that, if these numbers hold up, it looks like the pair
have had a net loss in viewers over the 10 months, from 8.7M to 8.3M (about
a 5% decline). At this point (and again, these numbers are a bit shaky, and
it is only the 2nd week) it seems that of the 5M viewers he was getting last
May, Leno has lost about 700K, with 300K going to Dave and 400K going
somewhere else.
10:00 PM Report
* 3/1 3/8 JLS *
M (L&O) 7.9/2.1 5.2/1.5 4.5/1.3
T (Parenthood) 8.2/3.1 6.1/2.7 5.9/1.9
W (SVU) 9.0/3.0 8.6/2.6 5.0/1.4
TH (Ref) 7.7/3.5 6.0/2.7 4.7/1.5
F (Dateline) 7.8/1.9 8.3/1.8 4.9/1.3
*Average 8.1/2.7 6.8/2.2 5.0/1.5*
NBC really took the plunge at 10:00 (a 16 - 18% decline) - looks like the
Olympic Bounce is really over. L&O took the biggest dive, approaching JLS
territory, but NBC is probably more bummed over the drop the Ref took in the
demo - a 24% drop. I would like to know how much the Ref costs NBC to
produce compared to a regular primetime show, and compared to the JLS. If
the cost is close to JLS, then these are still pretty huge improvements.
Dateline is the real war horse for NBC - increase in total viewers, and won
the time slot for NBC.
I do wonder what kind of numbers NBC would get if it ran L&O episodes from
the first 5 years at 10:00 on Mondays. I guess they can't do that - but if I
were accounting for them I might adjust the cost of producing new episodes
by some fraction of the income they got from selling that show into
syndication. Remember in L&O's first season, when they said they structured
the show the way they did because one hour dramas were not selling well in
syndication, and they planned to strip this show in 30 minute segments, with
the first half hour "police" running one day and the second half hour
"courtroom" segment the second day. Did they ever actually try doing that
anywhere?
--
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