*Late Shift Report*
09 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26
Leno: 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1
Dave: 1.1 1.1 1.0 .9 1.0
I have not been able to report for a while - partly due to time constraints
on my end, but mostly due to difficulty in getting reliable late night
numbers in anything like a timely basis. The TVBTN guys give sporadic next
day results, but they are often preliminary, and when the full data gets in
there are often significant revisions - and they often don't post the full
revision for a week or more. So I will instead just post and link to their
fairly regular weekly report (which is about a week behind):
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/04/01/four-weeks-four-jay-leno-tonight-show-ratings-wins/47037#more-47037
This only reports the demo rating, which is what I report in the table
above, along with the demos for the week to date in 2009.
As a reminder, I had anticipated that Leno would stabilize at a level that
was about 50% of his former lead over Dave. Last year at this time Leno's
lead was 27% in the Demo (1.4 v 1.1), which means I am predicting a stable
lead eventually of 13% - 14%. For the latest 3-week average (excluding his
first week and most recent week, for which numbers NA) Leno's lead was down
to 20% (1.17 vs .98). For last week (ending 3/26) Leno's lead had dropped to
10%.
Much of this period overlaps TH-F NCAA BB games, so they are a little flaky.
It looks like they excluded TH-F numbers for both Leno and Dave when there
were games played on CBS. I do not claim that Leno's lead has already
dropped below my predicted 13.5% level based on that last week alone, but he
does seem to have dropped significantly from his pre-dream lead over Dave.
>
>
> *10:00 PM Report
> *
> * 3/1 3/8 3/29 JLS *
> M (L&O) 7.9/2.1 5.2/1.5 6.0/1.8 4.5/1.3
> T (Parenthood) 8.2/3.1 6.1/2.7 6.3/2.5 5.9/1.9
> W (SVU) 9.0/3.0 8.6/2.6 10.0/2.9 5.0/1.4
> TH (Ref) 7.7/3.5 6.0/2.7 5.3/2.2 4.7/1.5
> F (Dateline) 7.8/1.9 8.3/1.8 X.X/1.4 4.9/1.3
> *Average 8.1/2.7 6.8/2.2 /2.16 5.0/1.5*
>
I don't have time to go back and get the 10:00 pm numbers from the two weeks
I missed, so this is just a snap-shot comparison (the last column is the
Leno Show average, with the usual adjustment). Last week (beginning 3/29)
CBS had 10:00 pm reruns M-W, a new CSI on THU (switched time slots with
Mentalist) and premier of a new show on Fri (Miami Medical). I guess the RR
competition explains why NBC did so well the first three nights of the week
(compared to 3.8, the second post-Olympic week), and then showed declines on
TH and F. Viewership numbers are not available yet for last night, but it
looks like Dateline is getting close to JSL numbers - though I still think
the cost of those two shows must be pretty close to the same, so it is
probably a wash. Ref looks like it is continuing to sink - I still don't
know what that show costs to make, I guess it is possible it is more
profitable than Leno. But you have to think they have had already had the
most attractive celebs they are ever going to have, so the ratings will
probably get even worse as we go.
--
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