On Tue, Jun 22, 2010 at 10:28 AM, David Lynch <[email protected]> wrote:
> Dave's ratings are unchanged from 52 weeks ago and week 15 of Jay's > return is below week 15 of Conan. TV by the Numbers has details... > > > http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/06/17/letterman-ties-leno-for-the-first-time-as-leno-falls-well-below-conans-tonight-show-ratings-trend/54514 > > How much face would NBC lose if it starts to look like they gave a > golden parachute to the wrong guy? How much do they have left to lose > over anything involving Leno at this point? > This is really bad news for NBC - and the data has been trending this way for some time now. If I were a Leno flack, I would be pointing out that we are two weeks away from the point in Conan's career where Dave went public with the extortion attempt. His ratings spiked that week, and from then on he more of then not beat Conan in the weekly ratings. Presumably Dave won't get that booster at a similar point in his race with Leno, so Leno will "catch-up" with Conan in relative terms. The problem for Leno is, Conan only once had weekly ratings as low as those that Leno logged in the most recent week on their chart (week ending June 11, 2010). I am never sure how to decipher the tvbtn guys, but I think this was a non-rerun week (and the week before it was a rerun week, for both Dave and Leno?). Further, Conan only had 3 weeks with weekly ratings as low as the most recent Leno number. And of course, both NBC and Leno characterized Conan's rating performance as a disaster, endangering the health of the Tonight Show franchise, and justifying Conan getting fired. I don't remember exactly which week NBC announced it was pulling the plug on an 11:35 Conan Tonight Show - I think it was close to Week 30. The data in the chart go to Week 15, so we are roughly at the half-way mark. I suppose there are some seasonal adjustments to be made to this data, but in general it looks like Leno has about 4-5 months to turn the corner, or presumably Jimmy Fallon will be the new host of the Tonight Show. I am actually not writing Leno off though - one big advantage he will have is that when the new Fall season begins, he will have a much better 10:00 lead-in than Conan had. Once we get through the part of the season that corresponds to the Jay Leno Show's first 3 weeks, this will be a significant advantage for Leno vs Conan. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
