On Thu, Dec 23, 2010 at 12:48 PM, Dave Sikula <[email protected]> wrote:

> Well, that situation has apparently changed, according to Nikki:
>
> http://www.deadline.com/2010/12/late-night-ratings-leno-fallon-hit-highs-in-viewers-nightline-takes-season-lead/
>
> "NBC won three nights in primetime last week, and its ratings gains
> also carried over to late-night. Both Jay Leno (4.2 million viewers)
> and Jimmy Fallon (1.9 million) hit season highs in total viewers. Leno
> also topped Letterman and Nightline/Jimmy Kimmel in every key category
> and also prevailed over Conan O'Brien's TBS show (1.1 rating vs. 0.7)
> in adults 18-49 for a fourth straight week. Fallon too topped Ferguson
> and Kimmel in every major category.
>
> Leno widened his margin of victory over Letterman in 18-49 to 22% in
> viewers (1.402 million vs. 1.149 million), up from a 3% win for the
> same week last year when Conan was the host of The Tonight Show. (SNIP)
>
>
Nikki mostly just passed on the NBC press release there. The basics are
correct, but the spin is maybe a bit heavy.

The main story line over the last few weeks is that Conan is sinking pretty
steadily. It looked to some like he might be stabilizing around 1.0/.0
(demo), but he has dropped .1 each of the last two weeks, and is now at .7.
During those same 3 weeks Leno remained steady, then went up .1, to his most
recent 1.1. What Finke did not say (presumably because NBC can not even
acknowledge the existence of this problem, so can't trumpet any progress) is
that Leno is now tied with Conan's Tonight Show on a year to date basis.
Dave's ratings have increased at the same rate as Leno's over the last few
weeks.

All of this does suggest that even after the first week or two of curiosity
viewers left, Conan is still losing viewers back to Leno and Dave. It is
still early to make any firm conclusions - NBC apparently was running first
time prime time programming in the most recent period, while CBS and ABC
were mostly in repeats. One of the commenters on TVBTN suggested that TBS
has changed Conan's lead-in recently to a demo that may be less compatible.
We will probably have to wait for the first few weeks after the holidays to
get a good reading on the new normal.

For now, NBC's Press Release (er, Finke's article) basically is trumpeting
the fact that the Tonight Show is beating a basic cable talk show.

******************
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/12/23/jay-leno%E2%80%99s-tonight-show-ratings-tie-conans-tonight-show-stay-above-conan-on-tbs/76480/comment-page-3#comments

Jay Leno’s *Tonight Show<http://tvbythenumbers.com/tag/tonight-show-ratings>
* adults 18-49 ratings tied those of  Conan O’Brien’s *Tonight
Show<http://tvbythenumbers.com/tag/tonight-show-ratings>
* on a *calendar* week basis (2010 vs. 2009), but were above *Conan* on TBS
show for the week.

Leno’s *Tonight Show
<http://tvbythenumbers.com/tag/tonight-show-ratings>*for the week of
December 13-16, 2010 averaged a 1.1 rating with adults
18-49, while Conan’s *Tonight
Show<http://tvbythenumbers.com/tag/tonight-show-ratings>
*averaged a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for the comparable calendar week last
year (December 14-17, 2009).

*Conan’s* new TBS show averaged a 0.7 adults 18-49 rating for the week of
December 13-16, 2010.
Letterman’s *Late Show
<http://tvbythenumbers.com/tag/late-show-ratings>*scored a 0.9 adults
18-49 rating for the week.

-- 
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