"last week we were amused out here by the quake anxiety 300 miles from the epicenter of a 5.8; this week we are concerned about the destructive potential of a force that seems more powerful (and is more mysterious to those of us out west). "
Not to downplay your concerns...hurricanes are serious business...but speaking as a guy down here in hurricane alley, you've probably hit the nail on the head there. Most of your worry is likely caused by your lack of experience with them, just as everybody in Virginia was freaking out about "only a 5.8 quake." As already pointed out, the biggest dangers are getting trapped at ground-level or lower during a storm surge, or being outside playing in the wind and getting hit by a shingle or other debris that gets peeled off the roof of a building. If she's on the second floor, all she has to do is stay inside, away from the windows and she should be fine. Bad case scenario, she may get a little nervous if the water rises higher than expected, and she sees it slowly creeping toward her up the stairs if the first floor gets flooded. But that would take a pretty incredible storm surge for the water to rise to the 15+ feet you'd need to reach a second floor apartment. I've already heard reports that Irene's not expected to get any stronger than Category I as it moves north, and likely will be downgraded to tropical storm strength by the time it reaches NYC. If that happens, then it would be akin to what we refer to down here in Florida as "September". :)
I'm sure she'll be fine, but I'll be pulling for you. We may need the favor returned later this season.
Doug Fields
Tampa, FL
---------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: [TV orNotTV] NO TV: Hurricane Info
From: PGage <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, August 27, 2011 11:30 am
To: [email protected]
On Sat, Aug 27, 2011 at 5:59 AM, Joe Hass <[email protected]> wrote:> 1. Would you evacuate if you were in a Zone B/C area before the CityI would not. If I had a 22-year-old daughter at this exact moment
> requires it? It seems like, even if the chances of serious flooding are
> minimal, waiting until you know for sure might be too late, since there will
> be no way to get out of there.
(8:45 AM ET Saturday), I'd tell her to shelter in place. It's hard to
say without knowing what, exactly, her living conditions are in terms
of the structure she's in, etc., but assuming she's in someplace that
has at least two floors, she should be fine.
The two quick reports I've found from NY1 and WNBC indicate that the
biggest risk is below Canal, south of where your daughter is, so as
long as she's prepared to bunker down, she should be fine. (SNIP)
Thanks to David, Joe and Ron for the info and advice. Looks like we are going with the hunker down approach (she is in a second floor apartment). I could not get her off the island by this morning anyway, and everything I have read, as reflected by the feedback here, is that unless she is directly flooded by the storm surge, the biggest danger would come from being out and hit by debris caught in the strong winds, so I am nixing any plan for her to walk or taxi to the hotel I found for her sunday morning. I did email her a map from her apartment to her closest evacuation site (a high school) just in case. I do keep hearing from people like sheriffs in North Carolina on TV that more people die in hurricanes from "inland flooding than coastal storm surge" (they repeat it just like that, as if it is a mantra in that part of the country) - but I am guessing that does not apply to a place like Manhattan (where rivers ring the edges, and do not thread through the mainland, and they have such an effective drainage system) - at least, I have not read any warnings about flooding in NYC from anything except storm surge or getting caught in the subways or tunnels.
Good luck to everyone from this list on the eastern seaboard - last week we were amused out here by the quake anxiety 300 miles from the epicenter of a 5.8; this week we are concerned about the destructive potential of a force that seems more powerful (and is more mysterious to those of us out west).
--
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