n Mon, Sep 19, 2011 at 2:20 AM, Wesley McGee <[email protected]> wrote:

>
> I'm not sure I agree or disagree, but the optics of this is horrible. This
> is an announcement he made on Sunday night. How many businesses make major
> announcements on Sunday night? It comes four days after the stock collapse
> (from the reported variance between expected and actual subscribers, whether
> the estimates came from last year or no). This could all be right in the
> end, but the way they get there is worrisome. If he intended to the business
> off from each other, why did he not announce it when he announced the price
> increases?
>
> This does not sound like they are embarking on their planned strategy.
> Maybe they're rushing it, which seems to be an even bigger mistake. I can
> see this announcement driving people to the perceived stability of Amazon or
> others.
>

Well, I don't mean that they always planned to announce a split service/name
on a Sunday night. I just mean that they have steadily been moving towards
separating the two services - and putting them on distinct financial
footings. What I think that last part means is that the want the DVD mail
order business to basically pay for itself, and they want to be free to
invest heavily in the streaming side.

I don't know how this will work out for them - the point is that they are
placing a bet - a pretty big one. I think it is a mistake for people to
assess the streaming service based on what is currently offered - worse yet
on what is currently offered minus Starz in a few months. Everything they
have done so far is to allow them to make major online acquisitions over the
next 12 to 18 months. If we are talking about a Netflix in January of 2013
that still is distinguished mostly by streaming old tv shows and some quirky
films, then there will be no doubt that they have failed. This only works if
over the next 1 to 2 years they are able to get a couple of big deals with
major content providers. If they do become one of the main streamers of
major films and new television programs, they won't care if they pissed off
a tens of thousands subscribers in the summer of 2011. If they don't - they
also wont care if they pissed off tens of thousands of subscribers in the
summer of 2011.

-- 
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