60 Minutes got 4M fewer viewers than its average for its exclusive sit-down interview with Romney and Ryan on Sunday, not surprising since it was up against the Olympic Closing ceremonies (see report from tvnewser below). This underlines the curious timing of Romney's announcement of the single biggest news-making decision presidential candidate who is not an incumbent has control over during the entire campaign. Four years ago McCain, despite having made a horrible decision, did an excellent job of making the announcement, sucking all of the oxygen out of a very successful Democratic nominating convention by pulling-off a truly stunning surprise press conference on the very next day (a Friday as I recall) that got them wall-to-wall television coverage for the weekend and the next week. They really squeezed every drop of free media coverage out of it. In contrast, Romney made his announcement on a Saturday morning, during the busiest day of prime medal events of the most popular Olympics in the history of the world. Despite what I think of their political values and policies, I know the people running the Romney campaign are smart, especially about using the media, so I have to assume the timing was either purposeful or unavoidable, but I can't decide which.
I believe it is unprecedented, and it is certainly unusual, for a VP announcement to be made this far in advance of the Convention. My understanding is that Romney did it this way because A) they made the judgement that the polling data which shows him slightly but significantly behind was stubborn and not going to change and B) they were getting hammered in the public eye by the questions about his income tax returns, and the embarrassing performance overseas. They want their Convention to be an upbeat redefinition of Romney, not a defensive response to a negative news cycle. Nate Silver has noted that the VP announcement historically gives an average of about a two percentage point bump in the polls, which does not last very long. But it does create a window of positive energy. But why not wait until the Monday after Olympics (i.e. yesterday) to make the announcement, when it would have really dominated the media discussion by itself? All I can think of is two explanations: 1) The story was about to leak. I noted how breathless and disorganized Chuck Todd was when he broke into the west coast Olympic program Friday night to break the story. He emphasized repeatedly that he had three sources confirming it. Perhaps it took him 3 or 4 days to get the three sources, and the Romney people realized he was close to going public. Rather than wait for Monday, they moved it up to Saturday to still get something of a surprise value? The main problem with this explanation is that they did that thing with the battleship, and that doesn't seem like the kind of thing you can yank the schedule around with at the last minute. 2) They wanted to narrow-cast the announcement as much as possible. The Ryan selection has been widely seen as a high-risk choice, because he is very polarizing. He energizes both the right and the left. My email inbox has been inundated over the last 4 days with solicitations from all the usual Democratic and progressive sources, using Ryan as the monster to motivate more giving. He allows the Democrats to tie Romney directly to a very, very unpopular Republican congress, and to a very specific, draconian budget, and a proposal to radically revamp medicare that polls show scares the shit out of a majority of seniors. It is to Romney's advantage to maximize exposure of Ryan to his base, (who have been luckwarm about his moderate social policies for most of his adult life, his Mormanism, which many on the far right do not see as properly Christian) and about letting the Democrats kick his ass around all summer about taxes and Bain and such) while minimizing Ryan's exposure to the so-called moderates and independents that he needs to win the election. What better way to narrow cast a joint appearance on 60 Minutes but to do it against one of the most-watched programs in history? http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/romney-ryan-60-minutes-ratings_b141704 "Despite its big, exclusive interview with *Mitt Romney *and* Paul Ryan*, the CBS newsmagazine “60 Minutes” couldn’t overtake its Olympic competition on NBC. “60 Minutes” averaged 6.29 million viewers on Sunday, improving on its PGA Championship lead-in. The program averaged a 1.6 rating/4 share in the key adults 25-54 demo. By comparison, NBC’s Olympics wrap-up show averaged over 21 million viewers, while its coverage of the Closing Ceremonies averaged over 31 million viewers. “60 Minutes” routinely averages well over 10 million viewers during the season, when it also has the benefit of an NFL lead-in, and is regularly a top 10 program on TV. With a last-minute interview giving CBS limited time to promote, and the Olympics Closing Ceremonies on NBC swallowing up every other TV show in its path, the program was unable to capitalize fully on its scoop, however." -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
