On Mon, Nov 19, 2012 at 3:02 AM, Adam Bowie <[email protected]> wrote:
> But the sales opportunity numbers and the viewer numbers are two different > things, and we need to think about them separately. > > In the past, there was a single set of numbers that represented both the > popularity of a show with viewers, and the available inventory for selling > advertising against it. What's clear is that in the 21st century, these > numbers are diverging, and so I think our grammar in talking about the > popularity of shows needs to move on. A bigger audience figure, regardless > of whether it's fully commercially monetised, is still a relevant number. > Networks need to look at the difference and work out how they can put ad > dollars against those people. > > Broadcasters need to look at the whole panoply of outlets, to make a final > decision about a show's survival: > > - Live broadcast > - Broadcast +4 DVR (+7 in the UK, interestingly) > - Network's website performance (cord cutting continues) > - iTunes > - Hulu > - Viewers who watch it outside one of these windows but are still fans > > And later > > - DVD/Netflix/Amazon > - Syndication > - International > > Nearly all of those earn cash for the show during its lifetime. (SNIP) Right - I agree with all of this. But as we keep saying, this is a critique of the model currently being used. The ratings for "Last Resort" are not high enough to justify the ad rates ABC wants/needs to charge. It is rational for them to cancel the show and replace it with one whose ratings has a good chance of being higher. I don't think they currently have enough information to justify a decision to keep it on the air at a loss predicated on the hope that it will make enough revenue in the future from online and DVD viewing to make it pay off. We may not be that far off from a world where that kind of information is available. At some point over the last 10 or 15 years we transitioned to a model in which networks figured out that they made more money by keeping low-rated shows on the air long enough to justify a syndication sale (we are looking at you, "Good Wife"). They now know the criteria that make this a rational decision (I think including that the show is actually owned by the network or its parent company, the number of episodes needed, which recently has dropped below 100 apparently, and I guess some markers that it is the kind of show syndicated audiences will like more than broadcast first run). A day may come soon when the networks will be able to reliably predict that a show like "Last Resort" is worth keeping on the air for even a couple of extra seasons at low ratings, because of indicators that it will sell well online or to DVD (did I read an article recently that DVD rental is making some kind of comeback?). We are already in a world where an after-broadcast distributer (Netflix, or a basic cable like TNT) could "save" a show like "Last Resort" either by making a separate deal to make and distribute new episodes after it has been cancelled, or (and this is what I would like to see start happening), buying the rights to the show from ABC (or whoever owns them) predicated on three full seasons being broadcast. I suspect that Netflix sells more views to shows that have been shown (and so advertised) on network television for a few years than it does to shows it produces and distributes itself. But I don't think ABC can be expected to extend LR on this basis as a gamble - they would need to have a done deal, or at least know that such deals are very likely for a show with LR's characteristics. All of that to say I still think it is a rational decision for ABC to cancel LR, given its ratings and the current model. Though all of the criticisms of the current model are valid. Another chestnut this comes back to of course is the value of making a show like LR as a limited, 13 episode series from the start. The original broadcast could be seen as an audition for either the original broadcaster, other broadcasters/cablecasters, or online or DVD distributers to pay for additional seasons. -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
