On Feb 15, 2013, at 7:26 AM, JW <[email protected]> wrote:

> I can believe that all three contestants felt extremely comfortable
> with "World Capitals", and didn't anticipate the "historical"
> knowledge that the actual clue required. As they'll all tell you now,
> it doesn't mean that they should each have bet it all, but I'm sure
> there are occasions where even adults are overconfident about a Final
> Jeopardy category.

This leads to an interesting question for me: since the losers in the Trebek 
era get set amounts, I'd be curious how many players approached the wagers with 
the category in mind as opposed to purely doing the math (discounting lock 
games). Since you really don't know how well you opponents know a category, I'd 
think you play for the mathematical probabilities of the eight scenarios. Then 
again, I've never been at that lectern like others on this board have.

In a tournament quarter or final game 1, where the end totals of the losers 
*do* matter, I'd have to assume that your knowledge of the category does come 
into play.

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