> I've been doing some thinking on this topic...

So have I. I've been thinking about how I'd explain Letterman to someone
young enough that Dave was always the old guy on CBS, and some of it
dovetails nicely with what you've been thinking.

> As far as the "Carson Template" goes, don't forget that in his earlier
> days, Carson did sketches (the "Mighty Carson Art Players" bits, Art
Fern,
> Carnac, etc.) and games ("Stump the Band") in his earlier years, so maybe
> Fallon isn't as far off from the "Carson Template" as many would think.

By 1982, Carson had been doing Tonight for 20 years, and it was a
well-oiled machine with no rough edges. Act 1 was the monologue, act 2 was
the comedy piece, acts 3-6 were the guest segments, and act 7 was
goodnights. The comedy piece might be one of the things you listed, but
more often it was just reading material at the desk. ("That book contains
everything you would EVER want to know about cattle ranching!" "Wrong
again, Brahma breath.")

The occasional competitor that popped up aspired to be a similar machine.
So when Late Night came along with all its rough edges, and no respect for
anyone, including the network, guests, audience, program, and especially
the host, it was a breath of fresh air. They lost some edges deliberately
when they moved to 11:35, but they still try to pull odd stuff out from
time to time.

> What I'm saying is that the Carson from the late 70's, sitting on the
dais
> with Ed and, say, Burt Reynolds and Dom DeLuise, probably wouldn't be
able
> to recognize the Carson who sat on that stool in May of 1992 and gave his
> fond farewell. But that's to be expected.

One thing that I was reminded of when some old Letterman interviews
reappeared after his retirement announcement is that Dave really didn't
expect to be on the air in 1994, let alone 2014. I'm sure the Letterman of
the Late Night days would loathe what the show has become, but I think he'd
understand that he couldn't do the same show in his sixties that he could
in his thirties. Also, I'm sure that as the staff develops lives outside
the show, and they develop a good idea of what will and won't work, there's
less enthusiasm for trying to come up with something totally new after a
few attempts have fallen flat on their faces. And pop culture zips by at
its insane pace, with entire genres appearing and disappearing, let alone
individual performers. So it's easy to imagine that the younger audience
now is looking for something fresher than a continuation of what was on the
air 15 years ago, the same way I was in 1982.

The thing that struck me about Fallon is that there was no edge to lose
when he went to 11:35. Letterman succeeded at it, Conan apparently didn't,
but Fallon really didn't have to try. It's entirely possible that he'll
have a long career at the Tonight Show, and if he does, good for him. The
show will evolve in 15 years; maybe Jimmy will develop more gravitas, or
maybe he won't. I would expect the show to come closer to the Carson
template, though, just because it works.

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