One of the smarter pieces of commentary I heard on this fall came in a podcast (Slate Money). The contributor pointed out that if you say you're going to do something - say, get 500k new subscribers this quarter - then that gets priced into the valuation. If you miss on those numbers, then the valuation is slightly out of whack, and you see a decline.
As ever with these things, you have to look over the longer term rather than make snap judgements from a single day. Truth be told, I have no idea if Netflix's model can work in the long run. It seems to me that while they've ramped up production to cover all those shows that they'll be losing in the next 6-24 months. But I can't see that they can ever stop. They can hardly sit back and say, "Well we've made a dozen Adam Sandler movies now. Why don't you just keep watching those on rotation?" Scarily, they're going to have to make a dozen more (I admit it. I watched Murder Mystery. Truly "below average." Some great actors in there absolutely coasting along.) And while international can take the weight off US numbers, that isn't necessarily a panacea. Tastes vary massively around the world. Unsurprisingly, people like locally and culturally relevant TV. Want to be big in India? You have to make Indian dramas. Want to be big in Brazil? You need local stuff. Want to be big in Turkey...? You get the picture. Adam On Fri, Jul 26, 2019 at 5:20 AM Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote: > On Wed, Jul 24, 2019 at 11:28 PM Doug Eastick <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I've read at least two books on algorithmic trading. This mention does >> not surprise me. Trades are decided and done in milliseconds. >> > > The comment about algorithmic trading was mine, not a quote from the > article. The intent was to say that the change in stock price did not come > from analysts researching the change in stock price, drawing conclusions, > and passing that information to investors. When the bots detected unusual > activity from Netflix (possibly in milliseconds) they were triggered to > sell the stock. Whatever the analysts had to say was moot. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAJE-FiGoaVCFPV%2BEKTuzfVFV7fvqMexdFiMY3ec1XG%2BaS98qwA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAJE-FiGoaVCFPV%2BEKTuzfVFV7fvqMexdFiMY3ec1XG%2BaS98qwA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAD_sJGC7U-_Nid190Z%2Bjkdc6b4-MaUzxJb9%2B_5ScKPk1zfeatw%40mail.gmail.com.
