I still like Netflix. It'll be one of the last TV services I cancelled if forced to make a choice. I enjoyed the new Aaron Sorkin movie last week, and this week watched the new version of Rebecca (lavish, but ho-hum - and I'm a massive fan of the director). It's a no-brainer if they keep churning out at this rate.
But there was an interesting piece in Quartz this week about their reliance on library titles that they don't own. Those Friends, The Office and Parks & Rec re-runs are (or were) very popular. And they've not yet managed their own 100 episode+ bingeable comfort food like that. And if they keep cancelling stuff quickly, they never will. https://qz.com/1918007/netflixs-original-shows-are-rarely-its-most-popular/ Incidentally, what I really don't like about Netflix is their corporate culture. Really quite savage. I recommend a recent podcast series by Peter Kafka and Rani Molla - Land of the Giants. The first episode gets into that culture: https://www.vox.com/land-of-the-giants-podcast Adam On Fri, Oct 23, 2020 at 4:55 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > I don’t know if Netflix’s model will work, but I admire what they have > been doing. They determined very early on, when they we’re still mostly > mailing out DVDs, that the future of their business was streaming. > > And they knew back then that eventually they would be going up against > companies with MUCH deeper pockets than theirs. They also knew that soon > enough the big content companies were going to stop making it so easy for > Netflix by letting them pass on their product. So they decided to invest > heavily in developing content, hoping that their commitment to spending, > market share and name recognition would allow them to beat the big boys in > the coming wars. > > A decade or so later, those wars are here, and the fact that Netflix is > still holding its own is impressive. Maybe they can’t spend their way to > victory, but almost certainly if they stop spending, they lose. > > Total Assets of Netflix and some competitors (per the Wiki report on each > company page): > Netflix: $34B > Warner Media (HBO): $69B > Disney: $193B > Amazon: $225B > Comcast: $263B > > I think Netflix’s strategy basically is to make it so expensive for most > of the Big Boys to play the streaming game that they decide it’s not worth > it to lose money in a non-core part of their business. If that is even part > right, after an initial pandemic pause I would expect them to jump right > back in to contributing their share and more of Peak TV. > > I have been rooting for them from the beginning, and I still am. > > On Thu, 22 Oct 2020 at 6:11 PM Adam Bowie <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> On Fri, Oct 23, 2020 at 1:41 AM Doug Eastick <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> ok.... so I understand now that Peak TV means quantity.... or a large >>> pile with a peak -- ok, got it. I've been wondering about this crazy >>> volume of productions for a few years now (basically once the streamers >>> like Netflix started winning Emmys). The crazy volume of shows, I don't >>> think, can be sustained from an economical basis. Sure all these >>> streaming studios/channels will disrupt the TV economy/landscape, but is >>> this not like the DotCom boom? So much money out there based on vacuous or >>> hopeful eyeballs and unproven models. >>> >> >> I think it's widely thought that there *is* also a new golden age of TV, >> because there are definitely a lot of high quality series out there. You >> still have to hunt though. Netflix may have hit it out of the park with >> House of Cards and Orange Is The New Black when it started. But now we get >> Emily in Paris... but also The Crown. >> >> I'm certain that the model isn't economical any more. In the old days, >> there were massive syndication revenues to be achieved (and for some >> perhaps there still are), but now you have Netflix spending more than they >> earn, and attempting to make TV shows not just for the US, but the world. >> The UK is now their number three production base, but Netflix is making TV >> in pretty much every European country, as well as places like India, >> Australia and dozens of other places. And they're making movies - they want >> to win Oscars. And they're making reality TV. And then there's the vast >> volume of kids stuff that I suspect few of us here are watching. >> >> They need to sign up a hell of lot of people to make their business model >> work. >> >> Meanwhile Amazon and Apple can essentially subsidise their TV services >> while they play their game (Amazon can amortise their spend against other >> Amazon revenues, but I reckon Apple will be out of TV production in a few >> years' time). But the spending is just a rounding error on their >> spreadsheets. >> >> If you're HBO Max or Peacock, you have to build an offering that's equal >> to that of Netflix. Viewers expect it. >> >> It's all got to be unsustainable. And where it leaves traditional >> networks I have no idea. >> >> >> I would really LOVE to see some of the inside metrics of Netflix and >>> their "renewal" decisions (prior to Covid-19). >>> >> >> From what I've read, there's a whole bunch of stuff. They're looking at >> 28 day views from launch, as well as overall views. But they also really >> need stuff that brings in new viewers. So if a show has settled down with a >> viewership base after a couple of seasons, and isn't still growing, or >> bringing in new viewers, then it's more likely to be cancelled. >> >> There's also the production model and the costs. In traditional TV, the >> production company can do things with the show after it's been on network >> TV. They can put it in syndication, sell it globally, licence it to >> streaming services or whatever. That's where the profit for the studio who >> makes it comes from. But Netflix doesn't really do most of those things. So >> they have to overpay on production costs for their originals because they >> want *all* the rights upfront. So the only revenues the producing studios >> can get are the fees from Netflix. So these tend to be stepped upwards - >> the show gets more expensive the longer it's on air. While that's often >> true for network TV too - casts of hit shows getting massive pay bumps - >> there's those down the road deals to mitigate the increases. For Netflix, >> they just see costs increasing season or season. >> >> There does seem to be a lot of "cancelled after two seasons" on Netflix, >> and these are some of the reasons. The downside for viewers is shows that >> don't wrap up properly or get left on unresolved cliffhangers. Will viewers >> start to get fed up with Netflix if they continue that? Maybe in due course. >> >> Now you can factor in the Covid costs too. >> >> Personally I can't see the Netflix model ever making enormous sense. The >> scale they have to work at to entertain the world is too much. While >> Americans might watch the odd British show and certainly vice versa, the >> same isn't always true of, say French viewers or Indian viewers. They'll >> watch a bit, but they like things in their own language featuring their own >> cultures. So Netflix has to make local language stuff in pretty much every >> territory they operate in. Netflix *has* done a decent job with this to an >> extent - the Spanish series Money Heist is truly popular globally for >> example - but that's an exception. Netflix needs those global viewers to >> all be spending their $5-15 a month to make the numbers add up. >> >> >> Adam >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "TVorNotTV" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAD_sJGANOXEtdvJm%2BSAqpqxaA-t67zcVAr39d4_YFC-PTqQDRg%40mail.gmail.com >> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAD_sJGANOXEtdvJm%2BSAqpqxaA-t67zcVAr39d4_YFC-PTqQDRg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >> . >> > -- > Sent from Gmail Mobile > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAKGtkY%2B0yj4vm6XF1HR22S8OTm8khRMGJUQ_Un5ZdpnHYdgvTA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAKGtkY%2B0yj4vm6XF1HR22S8OTm8khRMGJUQ_Un5ZdpnHYdgvTA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. 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