Pennsylvania is trending blue in statewide elections. The Democrats are 
concentrated in Philadelphia and the eastern part of the state and in and 
around the city of Pittsburgh. The spread of the red part of the state makes it 
easy to gerrymander the legislature. But the only part of the state growing in 
population is along the border with New Jersey and is made up of NJ transplants.

Pat Toomey picked good years to run. He first won in 2010 and benefited from 
the Tea Party wave. In 2016 he joined the Trump wave. He was an insider to 
politics and was president of Americans for Prosperity before running for 
office. It’s not clear why he’s not running for another term but it could be 
the changing demographics and no national name or race to boost him.

Oz should start strong in the primary race because of name recognition. Unless 
that’s enough to deter more experienced candidates he should be in for a tough 
race as the others will get attention by attacking him. If that’s enough to 
make his numbers fall he could easily pull out of the race. But he could also 
somehow get the party behind him. Then he has an uphill fight against the 
Democratic candidate.

> On Nov 30, 2021, at 3:29 PM, Kevin M. <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> 
> We have had snake oil salesmen as senators in our nation’s history… it has 
> not gone well 
> 
> I repeat my “this is all Oprah’s fault” mantra, and that if history remembers 
> her at all, it will be as a footnote to elevating the worst possible people 
> in their fields into celebrities. Oz. Phil. Jenny McCarthy. A pox on her 
> house. 
> 
>> On Tue, Nov 30, 2021 at 12:02 PM Brad Beam <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Surprise: In Pennsylvania, and not where he’s lived the last couple decades 
>> (NJ) before moving in with his Main Line in-laws last year. (Fwiw, he voted 
>> absentee in ‘20.)
>> 
>> No surprise: As an R.
>> https://www.wsaz.com/2021/11/30/sources-dr-oz-plans-run-senate-seat-pennsylvania/
>> 
>> 
>> Sent from my iPhone
>> 
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