The Variety article is a recap of a Fandom press release with no critical eye or assessment of if the Fandom numbers mean anything. The survey is self selecting and the data gathered respond to one small group who are already committed to streaming TV and not the general population. Asking people for an opinion of a fair price can be meaningless. There is a true metric for finding out what people will pay for a streaming platform which is how many quit when the price goes up. Using the survey to give solid advice to streamers is like going to financial traders after closing time and asking why the market went up or down 20 points and what investors should do.
Netflix is having trouble because they were first out of the gate and they had a huge library of old movies and TV shows. They added prestige movies and series. Now competitors have sprung up who took the rights to the libraries and turn out their own prestige series and series. Netflix has to find a different way to keep growing. On Wed, Apr 20, 2022 at 9:45 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > So I did a bit of a deep dive into this (though may have hit my head on a > few rocks). I don’t think the main take-a-way from the survey is that > streaming is overpriced (in fact, of the 8 premium streamers considered, > three are viewed as actually underpriced). > > > One thing to keep in mind is the survey is done by Fandom, and the > population is their members, not the US at large. I am not that familiar > with Fandom, but from what I gather it caters to kind of super and online > fans of consumer entertainment. I suspect they skew younger than the US > population as a whole > > Fandom seems to think the main take away is that the most important > characteristic for streamers is “genre” – that consumers sign up for > specific programs initially, but stay because they will find additional and > consistent content in the genre that first attracted them. They argue that > churn is most likely when new subscribers don’t know what to watch next on > the service, and rather than search for new content, they unsubscribe and > maybe go elsewhere. > > > This seems unlikely to me, mostly because it runs counter to what we know > happened with cable TV, where narrowcasting, genre based programming > inevitably gave way to more broadbanded, less predictable programming. The > Fandom analysis will inevitably favor Disney+, which offers clear genre > based programming; if you signed up to watch Black Widow, or Encanto, or > Solo, you are very likely to find other programming on the service that you > will also be interested in. But, if you are not a child, adolescent or > young adult, this may not be very important to you. I find so far I have > probably saved money with my Disney+ subscription compared to the cost of > going to a theater to see current and archival Marvel and Star Wars films > just to be able to discuss with my young adult children. > > I find the survey most helpful as an indicator of which streamers are seen > as most desirable or worthy. The average US home has about 4.5 streaming > services, but the fastest growing services are the “Free Ad-supported > Streaming TV (FAST) services (like TUBI or IMDTV, or whatever that is > called now). I could not find a good source on the average number of > premium services a US household subscribes to (and there are more than just > the big 8 discussed in this survey), but lets say that households that > subscribe to any premium service at all average 3. Kevin reports his 3 are > Paramount, Disney and Apple+. In the survey, the top three ranked streamers > clearly are: Netflix, HBO-M and Disney+. If I had to limit myself to 3 it > would probably be Netflix, HBO-M and Apple+ (I would miss Amazon the most > of the rest, but could pay a la carte for most of what I wanted). The list > below is in order of how much Fandom members thought each service was > worth, and also includes the actual cost, and the percent above or below > the estimated worth each service is. Note that the actual cost is > complicated by the offering of multiple tiers – in each case I intended to > use the cheapest ad-free option. In most cases, the with ad option is > significantly below what the survey valued the service at, which makes me > think they were not targeting FAST versions. > > Worth > > Worth Cost % > > Netflix: 10.60 9.99 -06 > > HBO-M 9.30 14.99 +61 > > Disney+ 9.20 7.99 -13 > > Hulu 8.60 12.99 +51 > > Amazon 6.90 8.99 +30 > > Apple+ 6.80 4.99 -27 > > Paramount+ 6.80 9.99 +47 > > Peacock 5.50 9.99 +81 > > This list can also be sorted by the best and worst bargains; below I list > the three best and three worst values, defined as the percent below or > above the price the survey judged each service to be worth the actual cost > was: > > Best Value > > Apple+ 6.80 4.99 -27 > > Disney+ 9.20 7.99 -13 > > Netflix: 10.60 9.99 -06 > > Worst Value > > Peacock 5.50 9.99 +81 > > HBO-M 9.30 14.99 +61 > > Hulu 8.60 12.99 +51 > > Two associated points, not included in the survey or Variety’s article > about it. > > > 1. > > Netflix’s stock price took a huge dive yesterday after the market > closed (at one point at least 25%), this on the heels of reporting that not > only did they fail to meet even the low end of their estimated new > subscribers, but they actually lost subscribers for the first time in years > (though the loss was due to cutting services in Russia). See: > > https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html > > > Netflix spun this in part as being due to password sharing, which kind of > pissed me off, as it seems unlikely that practice suddenly and dramatically > spiked in the first quarter of this year; this seems more like their way of > justifying coming practices to curtail password sharing. Clearly the real > reason for the dip (and Netflix is preparing investors to expect a lost of > 2 million subscribers in the second quarter) is mostly due to the > increased streaming competition. Netflix may be viewed as the most > important and best valued streaming service, but it is no longer a > necessary service for many, and is now subject to the same Churn forces as > everyone else. It does seem obvious that there are more streaming services > than the market can really bare (here include what I think of as Ad-ons > like Acorn, Epix, AMC+, Brit Box, PBS, Masterpiece, etc.). I don’t expect > Netflix to go bankrupt, but I do expect over the next 2-3 years to see some > significant reduction in premium streaming services, either by merging, or > the acquisition of content libraries. > > > 1. > > As noted above, FAST services seem to be the wave of the future. In > his explanatory note to investors, Hastings announced that he has begun to > re-think his famous, long standing opposition to ads on Netflix. He did not > exactly announce an ad-supported tier, but made clear that we can expect > one over the next year or two. Peacock, justifiably rated as the least > valuable of the big 8, still reports big growth in its ad-supported tier. I > did not search for relative growth in ad-supported tiers at other > providers, but suspect the same is true there. Ad support on premium > services is not exactly a FAST service, more of a hybrid, but for a service > with an elastic demand curve, ad-supported tiers is a way to keep the cost > in a tolerable range. I am in the group that Hastings referred to as being > advertising intolerant. I despise being made to watch commercials on a > service I am already paying a monthly subscription fee to watch. I much > prefer watching TUBI or IMDTV with ads (which I do on occasion) than > watching ads on Peacock. They would have to make Netflix or HBO almost free > for me to pay them and sit through commercials. But I am older, with a > little more income, and no young children at home. I expect not only more > ad-supported tiers on premium services, but being asked to pay a higher > premium to avoid ads in the near future. On Netflix it may not be so much > that the ad tier is a discount, but a way to avoid paying future price > increases. > > > On Tue, 19 Apr 2022 at 7:44 PM Kevin M. <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I’ve said before, I feel I’m getting my money’s worth with Paramount, >> Disney, and Apple, but there’s not much of a draw to me for Netflix, >> Amazon, HBO, or Showtime. >> >> On Tue, Apr 19, 2022 at 1:47 PM 'Bob Jersey' via TVorNotTV < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> The Fandom official in charge of it told V that once people plunk down >>> the funds, they "really feel that they don’t know what’s coming. They feel >>> overwhelmed. They don’t feel that the platforms do a great job of telling >>> them.” >>> >>> >>> https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/netflix-disney-plus-hbo-max-prices-streaming-study-1235226885/ >>> (link) >>> >>> >>> B >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/06154ea3-cce7-43de-919e-9a103c9b0861n%40googlegroups.com >>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/06154ea3-cce7-43de-919e-9a103c9b0861n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>> . >>> >> -- >> Kevin M. 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