You normally don't need all 53 bits - but as snowflake simply skips a
few IDs every now and then, you get a lot more IDs.

Chance of it actually reaching 53 bits? I'd say that it happens at the
end of November... Friday the 26th?

Tom


On 10/19/10 8:04 PM, M. Edward (Ed) Borasky wrote:
> With all due respect, the root of the problem is that "computer
> scientists" think in terms of abstract machines with infinitely-wide
> registers, infinitely many addressable RAM cells, etc., and "business
> people" think in terms of human populations and their tweet rates
> growing geometrically for all time. Journalists believe neither of
> these. ;-) And neither assumption is realistic, which is why we have to
> make decisions like this from time to time, and why sometimes we predict
> disasters like Y2K or 32-bit machines crumbling in 2038 that don't
> actually happen. ;-)
> 
> So - for Twitter: what is your *realistic* projection for when a 53-bit
> integer ID will overflow? What are the underlying assumptions about
> human population growth, spread of Twitter, revenue models, competition,
> etc.? I know this is all highly confidential, so for sake of argument,
> assume current tweet rates per user and the goal your executives have
> stated of a billion users, with a plateau at that point. The question
> I'm asking is whether you *really* need 64-bit integer IDs for tweets or
> for users. ;-)
> 
> By the way, I ask similar questions of all the "big data" geeks out
> there - so many naked emperors, so little time. ;-)
> 

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