Readers of this mailing list may be interested in following article,
just published by JAIR:

Lukasiewicz, T. (1999)
  "Probabilistic Deduction with Conditional Constraints over Basic Events", 
   Volume 10, pages 199-241.

   Available in PDF, PostScript and compressed PostScript.
   For quick access via your WWW browser, use this URL:
     http://www.jair.org/abstracts/lukasiewicz99a.html
   More detailed instructions are below.

   Abstract: We study the problem of probabilistic deduction with
   conditional constraints over basic events. We show that globally
   complete probabilistic deduction with conditional constraints over
   basic events is NP-hard. We then concentrate on the special case of
   probabilistic deduction in conditional constraint trees. We elaborate
   very efficient techniques for globally complete probabilistic
   deduction. In detail, for conditional constraint trees with point
   probabilities, we present a local approach to globally complete
   probabilistic deduction, which runs in linear time in the size of the
   conditional constraint trees. For conditional constraint trees with
   interval probabilities, we show that globally complete probabilistic
   deduction can be done in a global approach by solving nonlinear
   programs. We show how these nonlinear programs can be transformed into
   equivalent linear programs, which are solvable in polynomial time in
   the size of the conditional constraint trees.

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        ftp://ftp.mrg.dist.unige.it/pub/jair/pub/volume10/lukasiewicz99a.ps

    The compressed PostScript file is named lukasiewicz99a.ps.Z (290K)

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