Sounds like the approach used by Gary King, famous for his solution to the "ecological" inference problem in dealing with aggregate data of voter behavior. He uses a hierarchical Bayes approach. See http://gking.harvard.edu/, http://gking.harvard.edu/eicamera/kinroot.html Jeff Borchers Judea Pearl wrote: > Has anyone heard about this work before? > What is a "Hierarchical Bayes" approach? > =========Judea > > > 01/07/2001 > The Economic Times > > Copyright (C) 2001 The Economic Times; Source: World Reporter (TM) > > WANT TO know if the next planned blockbuster will hit the charts? Do you > know that thrillers are popular in Japan and Mexico or that romantic movies > doing well in the US, Germany, Sweden and South Africa are least likely to > do well in other international markets? Ask Dr Pradeep Chintagunta, > professor at the University of Chicago who has worked on a unique model > based on the "hierarchical Bayesian" approach, a statistical form that lets > a user input information at more than one stage in the research, that > forecasts the future of an unreleased movie. > According to The Economist, Chintagunta worked along with professor Ramya > Neelamegham, on the Bayesian model using box office figures for 35 movies, > each of which was released in 14 countries, taking into account various > factors, including cultural preferences, genre, and the reputations of > leading actors. Brazil and Britain were found to be the most unpredictable > markets (43 per cent average error rate), with Japan and Germany the most > predictable (only 21 per cent average error rate). So can Bollywood be far > behind and would he work this model for India? Says Chintagunta: "This > should not be a problem as long as accurate numbers are published. One of > the issues is whether reported numbers are correct. Even if they are, will > they be available for several periods - weeks, months - at least for a 'BAS' > set of movies?" Meanwhile, Chintagunta has extended this model to new tech > products like digital cameras. He claims the model can be used in > management. "We have been contacted by a lot of folks. Unfortunately, they > tend to have shortterm needs and do not have the data readily available to > give us." Chintagunta says what really brought him to the US was "not a > very challenging banking job in India." He did his BT in mechanical > engineering from the Institute of Technology, Banaras Hindu University in > 1984 and MS (management) from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. > Having got his PhD from the Northwestern University, he was an assistant > professor of marketing, Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell > University before joining the faculty at the University of Chicago graduate > school of business where he has been since 1995. He was awarded the Hillel > Einhorn Award for Excellence in Teaching, (Barcelona) Program, 1999. His > journalistic career spans many publications as editor, Journal of Business; > area editor, Marketing Science; and associate editor, Management Science, > Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. Life moves at a cerebral pace > at the GSB in the University of Chicago where he teaches marketing strategy > and marketing management. He says: "Working here is terrific. Chicago is as > close to intellectual utopia as you can get. I find it very challenging. I > have colleagues who are super smart and I consider it a privilege to be part > of the group of faculty here. The students, MBA and PhD are also extremely > bright and keep you on your toes." Chintagunta is quite Indian in his food > habits, values, music and films. "My wife is Spanish," he says, "and we need > to get our regular `dosa fix. Family values in Spain and India are very > similar so it works out well. We enjoy spending time with both our families > and try to do it every year if possible." He has researched issues relating > to brand repositioning, new brand introduction, estimation of brand use from > household goods scanner-panel data and has done an analysis of household > purchase behaviour. Using data on supermarket scanners, Chintagunta has > tried to figure out how consumers make purchase decisions. Are they driven > by price? Are they loyal? How do various brands compete with one another for > consumer attention. Currently working on how companies interact with one > another, he adds: "I am just finishing a paper on pharmaceutical pricing. > Firms set prices in many geographic markets (countries) taking into account > the local market response to price, interaction with other firms in other > markets. "For instance, Pfizer may not want to lower prices to compete with > Merck in UK as it knows Merck can retaliate by lowering prices in UK and the > US. The paper attempts to decompose prices into the three components."
