To UAI List members --
I would be interested in knowing what software GUI tools are available for
probability assessment, either commercial or academic products. Such tools
would be designed to avoid or test for the well known biases that have been
documented by Kahneman D. Slovic P. & Tversky A.(eds). Judgement under
Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, (1982) and
othere writers. Examples of these biases are:
Representativeness:
Base-rate neglect
Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes
Insensitivity to sample size
Misperception of chance and randomness
Denial of uncertainty
Availability
Adjustment and Anchoring
Conjunction fallacy
Hindsight bias
Difficulties in assessing variance, covariance and correlation
Conservatism
Overconfidence
Fallacies associated with causal and diagnostic reasoning
Thanks in advance.
Bob Welch.
