Dear Judy, I have a very simply question.
Let us consider three persons: John, Robert and Michael. There are also two passwords: Password A - 158193jdflasasd Password B - 95731kaelkajddds John doesn't know any password. Robert know only password A. Michael know password A and B. Now we can write: John knows 0% of given passwords (because he has never seen any of these passwords), Robert knows only the password A (i.e. he knows 50% of given passwords because he has never seen the password B), Michael knows the password A and B (i.e. he knows 100% of given passwords). Let's also assume that they don't have memory problems, sclerosis, they are not on drags, they didn't drink any alcohol, they are not on stress, they don't just loose their favorite cat or any other pets, they are not just bankrupt, they are not in electric shock, they don't cheat, they didn't receive any bribe (for example from some fanatic Bayesian or fuzzy specialist :)), they are not sitting on a bomb, they are not hungry, they don't have to go to toilet etc. The question is, what the probability is that: a) John know 0% password, b) Robert know 50% password, c) Michael know 100% password? In other words, how to calculate the numbers 0%, 50%, 100% by using probability theory? Regards, Andrzej Pownuk > -----Original Message----- > From: Judy Goldsmith [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Friday, August 01, 2003 1:39 AM > To: Andrzej Pownuk; 'Judy Goldsmith'; [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: RE: [UAI] random degrees > > On Jul 31, 10:30pm, "Andrzej Pownuk" wrote: > } Subject: RE: [UAI] random degrees > } Dear Judy, > } > } I general I agree that there are some random components in the process > } of giving degree. > } > } However if we consider a very simply tests then > } I don't think that the influence of randomness is significant. > > I argue here that there is both uncertainty and randomness > present in all of your examples. > > } > } Let us consider the test which contains two questions: > } > } 1) When did Columbus Discover America? > } 2) When did the First World War begin? > } > } Probability of guessing the answers is very low. > } What is random in the fact that somebody answers > } 0%,50%,100% of these question? > } > > It's arguable whether Columbus "discovered" America. > That's true in the sense that he didn't know whether it was > there, or that it was there. However, many people already > knew this fact. > > Many countries were involved in World War I. Began for > which countries? What is the definition of the beginning > of a war? (Or in the case of the US aggression in Iraq, > what defines the end of a war?) > > These questions, and many exam questions, are open to > discussion. > > } If somebody learned then he know > } if somebody didn't learn then he doesn't know. > } This is quite deterministic relation. > > Given the way my memory access works, I am not sure what > it means to "know" something. I may be able to address you > by name in our conversation, and a few minutes later be > unable to introduce you to someone else. > > My students generally have better access to their memories, > but still exhibit glitches, especially under pressure. > > There are many factors that affect student performance on > exams. Some are personal: has the student slept, eaten, > etc. appropriately before the exam? Have there been any > external distractors? > > Can the student access the information? Can the student > frame the relevant information appropriately for the > question? Some students prefer to memorize, some to > derive or reason. Some prefer short answers, some open-ended > questions. > > One might be able to quantize these as parameters/factors > in a multidimensional space. I prefer to model the outcome > probabilistically, where the probabilities take into account > both the probabilities of external affectors and the > probabilities of internal glitches and moments of clarity. > > > } > } Of course in reality there are some random "noises" > } for example sclerosis, influence of stress etc. > } > } However I still don't understand > } what is random in the fact that somebody remember some data? > } (if we neglect sclerosis and other problems) > } > } > } > } Well this is really not a very good example > } because randomness play an important role in this case.
