First announcement of TED Workshop GRAPHICAL MODELLING OF DEPENDENT UNCERTAINTIES FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN PUBLIC POLICY
23-26 August 2004 Gartmore House, Gartmore , Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park, Scotland http://www.managementscience.org/TED.html Workshop aims This workshop is proposed as a technical workshop designed to further progress in supporting e-democracy through the Bayesian paradigm. Graphical models of dependent uncertainties have become a popular methodology in the areas of uncertainty and decision analysis. Bayesian networks are perhaps the best known, but other graphical methods such as Markov trees, vines, dependence graphs and Bayes-linear nets have also been developed. The topic to be explored during this workshop is the extent to which such graphical models can be used to support uncertainty modelling for public policy decisions. Such decision problems are highly complex with difficulties concerning problem structuring and uncertainties. Typical difficulties are (1) the detection of the probabilistic conditional (in)dependencies, (2) the construction of the structure taking into account the varying requirements of stakeholders, and (3) the management of continuous and mixed (random or decision) variables The workshop will bring together researchers coming from the various fields devoted to structural learning, decision modelling, and uncertainty modelling. Work addressing graphical modelling with emphasis on the following are encouraged: * New graphical models * Conditional independence * Minimum information models * Continuous and mixed distribution modelling * Monte Carlo and MCMC simulation * Structural learning (model search strategies) and parametric learning * Models with constraints (asymmetries, impossible scenarios...) * Elicitation protocols; heuristics and biases * Distributed decision making The workshop is supported by the "Towards an Electronic Democracy" project of the ESF. Organising Committee The organising committee is Tim Bedford (Strathclyde), Concha Bielza (Technical Univ of Madrid). Roger Cooke (TU Delft), and Jim Q. Smith (Warwick). Dates 23-26 August 2004 Format of the workshop The workshop is intended to provide the opportunity for participants to work together. Hence there will be a very limited number of presentations from the invited speakers, leading researchers in the area of graphical modelling. It is a single-track workshop, with no parallel sessions. Researchers will be encouraged to begin with collaboration during the meeting, and the facilities at the location will be used to encourage this. Participation The workshop will be restricted to a maximum of about 30 participants. Location The workshop will be held at Gartmore House, a Victorian stately home in the Loch Lomond National Park to the north of Glasgow. It has magnificent views across 22 miles of beautiful Scottish countryside. This is now a centre providing space for small conferences, run by a non-profit charitable trust. Gartmore House is a short walk away from the conservation village of Gartmore, where the village pub and shop/postoffice can be found. A minibus service will be provided to bring participants to and from Gartmore House. More information about Gartmore House can be found at its website, http://www.gartmorehouse.com. Information about the village of Gartmore and its history can be found at www.gartmore-village.co.uk/ <http://www.gartmore-village.co.uk/>. http://www.aberfoyle.co.uk/ Getting there There are three airports which can be used to get to Gartmore House: Glasgow Prestwick (http://www.gpia.co.uk/), Glasgow International (www.baa.com/main/airports/glasgow <http://www.baa.com/main/airports/glasgow>) and Edinburgh International (www.baa.com/main/airports/edinburgh <http://www.baa.com/main/airports/edinburgh>). As well as many direct flights by conventional carriers, these airports are served by several low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and Easyjet. From Glasgow Prestwick there is a train connection to Glagsow Central Railway Station. A short bus route connects Glasgow International with Glagsow Central Railway Station. A minibus will be available to take participants to Gartmore House from Glagsow Central Railway Station. Times will be made known nearer to the conference. From Edinburgh it is possible to take either a bus or train to Glasgow, or to Stirling, and from there a bus to Gartmore. There is a bus service from Glasgow Buchanan Bus Station to Gartmore. Public transport information can be found at www.travelinescotland.com <http://www.travelinescotland.com/>. Important Dates: Participation in this event is strictly limited in order to promote a tight-knit, friendly working environment. You are therefore encouraged to register as soon as possible. The last date for workshop and accommodation registration is 15 June 2004. A registration form will be made available via the website soon, and payment can be made by cheque or credit card. Workshop proceedings There will be no formal proceedings as such. The workshop organisers will endeavour to publish a collection of papers presented at the meeting, or developed at the meeting, in a special issue of a relevant journal. Contact information local organiser Prof Tim Bedford Prof of Decision and Risk Analysis Dept of Management Science 40 George St Glasgow G1 1QE Tel 00-44-141-548-2394 Fax 00-44-141-552-6686 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Information about TED: The European Science Foundation (ESF) has established the programme "Towards Electronic Democracy: Internet-based Complex Decision Support (TED)" to run from 2003-2006 with the objective of discussing and evaluating how advances in interactive decision analytic tools might help develop inclusive e-democratic systems which evolve their electorates more fully in decision making. Further info on the TED program is at http://bayes.escet.urjc.es/ted/index.html or via the ESF website http://www.esf.org/ted -- Concha Bielza Facultad de Inform�tica | School of Computer Science Univ. Polit�cnica de Madrid | Madrid Technical Univ. Campus de Montegancedo E-28660 Madrid (SPAIN)
