Ray Kurzweil believes that, of course, like all transhumanists, e.g. Ben
Goertzel
Read his book
http://www.amazon.ca/How-Create-Mind-Thought-Revealed/dp/0670025291
and I commented a bit
http://forum.complexevents.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=257&p=1497#p1497
-Rainer
Am 21.08.2013 21:23, schrieb Richard E. Neapolitan:
This is the best response I obtained arguing that an artificial brain
is on the horizon:
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: RE: [UAI] Research indicating that we will have true
artificial intelligence in the next 10 to 100 years
Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2013 13:01:14 -0400
From: Fry, Robert L. <[email protected]>
To: Richard E. Neapolitan <[email protected]>
Firstly, we have collectively failed at this endeavor so far. Unlike
the past,
however, there are clearly ongoing research threads that imply that
the 10 to 100 year is reasonable. This is of course an opinion based
on my own research and views. These threads include:
o The DARPA Physical Intelligence program
<http://www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/DSO/Programs/Physical_Intelligence.aspx>,
its goals, and its progress to
establish the physical basis for intelligence, e.g., the Carnot
cycle whereby
an open system extracts information from its environment reducing its
entropy and allowing it to make decisions to control its future.
o The recent April 2013 /Phys Rev. Lett./ paper by Wissner-Gross
Causal Entropic Forces
<http://www.alexwg.org/publications/PhysRevLett_110-168702.pdf>
and their take on the thermodynamic basis of intelligence. See their
videos,
examples, and visit their start-up from MIT.
o The work of Karl Friston and his Free-energy model of the brain --
see his article
in Nature <http://www.nature.com/nrn/journal/v11/n2/abs/nrn2787.html>.
o My own research on a fundamental theory of computation
<http://www.nicta.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/25991/Another_Information_Revolution_3.0.pdf>
which I am
transitioning into a formal engineering framework. I can
ostensibly completely
reverse-engineer the cortical neuron viewing it as an autonomous
intelligent
system. Might check out the short video I made for 5^th grades as
part of the
Flame Challenge that addresses the question "What is Time?"
<http://vimeo.com/60858372>
o Relationship of ALL the above to Maxwell's Demon
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxwell%27s_demon>,Rolf Landauer's
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer%27s_principle> work
and the like.
I believe it will be around 10-15 years max. Anyway, these are my views
Bob Fry
Prof. Robert Fry
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
*From:*uai [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Richard
E. Neapolitan
*Sent:* Tuesday, August 20, 2013 9:23 AM
*To:* [email protected]
*Subject:* [UAI] Research indicating that we will have true artificial
intelligence in the next 10 to 100 years
Dear Colleagues,
One of my publisher's asked me to review a proposal for a book. The
theme of the book is predicated on the statement that "it is widely
believed that in the next 10 to 100 years scientists will succeed in
creating human level artificial general intelligence." There is no
research that gives me any reason to believe this. In my recent AI
textbook I took the stance that we have essentially failed at this
endeavor. Does anyone know of any research that would make someone
make such a statement?
Thanks,
Rich
--
Richard E. Neapolitan, Ph.D., Professor
Division of Health and Biomedical Informatics
Department of Preventive Medicine
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine
750 N. Lake Shore Drive, 11th floor
Chicago IL 60611
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