There are (at least) two bugs that look rather similar:
bug 658458 and bug 658581
In both cases removal of xserver-xorg-video-nouveau was reported as solution by 
the affeced persons.

Can you check if you have xserver-xorg-video-nouveau installed?
If you have, can you try to remove that package and start the upgrade again?

regards, MH

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Could not calculate the upgrade when updating ubuntu 10.04 to ubuntu 10.10
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/663158
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