Thanks for your report.

One of the problem is caused by sunbird which is not in the archive anymore. 
Can you try to remove it and retry the upgrade.
If it fails again, could you please attach the new log file 
/var/log/dist-upgrade/apt.log 

Thanks.

@Jeremy, please file another report. many different causes can generate
this error. Thanks.

** Changed in: update-manager
       Status: New => Incomplete

** Also affects: update-manager (Ubuntu)
   Importance: Undecided
       Status: New

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
       Status: New => Incomplete

** Changed in: update-manager
       Status: Incomplete => Invalid

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/772501

Title:
  Upgrade to Natty fails with "could not calculate upgrade"

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