When comparing the two logs (one with debug and one without) I noticed that 
they start to diverge when the xserver bits
are removed. Its not quite clear yet why, I run with -o 
Debug::pkgDPkgProgressReporting next

The dry-run has:
/usr/bin/dpkg --force-overwrite --status-fd 96 --force-depends 
--force-remove-essential --remove xserver-xorg-video-tseng ^M^M
/usr/bin/dpkg --force-overwrite --status-fd 98 --unpack --auto-deconfigure 
/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-siliconmotion_1%3a1.7.5-1build2_amd64.deb
 
/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-ati_1%3a6.14.99~git20111219.aacbd629-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb
 ^M^M
/usr/bin/dpkg --force-overwrite --status-fd 100 --force-depends 
--force-remove-essential --remove xserver-xorg-video-nv ^M^M


And the real one:
[pid 16170] execve("/usr/bin/dpkg", ["/usr/bin/dpkg", "--force-overwrite", 
"--status-fd", "30", "--force-depends", "--force-remove-essential", "--remove", 
"xserver-xorg-video-tseng", "xserver-xorg-video-nv", 
"xserver-xorg-video-chips", "xserver-xorg-video-i128", 
"xserver-xorg-video-ark", "xserver-xorg-video-rendition", 
"xserver-xorg-video-s3virge", "xserver-xorg-video-voodoo", 
"xserver-xorg-video-apm", "xserver-xorg-video-v4l"], [/* 31 vars */]) = 0

[pid 16176] execve("/usr/bin/dpkg", ["/usr/bin/dpkg", "--force-
overwrite", "--status-fd", "30", "--unpack", "--auto-deconfigure",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
siliconmotion_1%3a1.7.5-1build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-
ati_1%3a6.14.99~git20111219.aacbd629-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
mach64_6.9.0-1build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-
video-intel_2%3a2.17.0-1ubuntu4_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-trident_1%3a1.3.4-2build2_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
s3_1%3a0.6.3-4build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-
video-mga_1%3a1.4.13.dfsg-4build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-
nouveau_1%3a0.0.16+git20111201+b5534a1-1build2_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
neomagic_1%3a1.2.5-2build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-
xorg-video-r128_6.8.1-5build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-cirrus_1%3a1.3.2-4build1_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
tdfx_1%3a1.4.3-4build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-
xorg-video-sisusb_1%3a0.9.4-2build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-vesa_1%3a2.3.0-7build2_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
fbdev_1%3a0.4.2-4ubuntu2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-
xorg-video-savage_1%3a2.3.3-1ubuntu1_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
radeon_1%3a6.14.99~git20111219.aacbd629-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
vmware_1%3a11.99.901-0ubuntu1_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives
/xserver-xorg-video-openchrome_1%3a0.2.904+svn1050-1_amd64.deb",
"/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-video-
sis_1%3a0.10.3-3build2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/libgl1-mesa-
dri_8.0.1-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb", "/var/cache/apt/archives/xserver-xorg-
core_2%3a1.11.4-0ubuntu4_amd64.deb"], [/* 31 vars */]) = 0

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/927993

Title:
  distribution upgrade from lucid to precise failed with :  package dpkg
  is already installed and configured

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